Off-premise alcohol sales decrease against difficult comparisons (BUD)
For the four weeks ended April 10, off-premise alcohol sales declined 6.9% YOY. For the same period, spirits decreased 6%, wine decreased 14%, and the beer category decreased 4% against difficult comparisons a year ago. The core beer category decreased by 6%. Compared to the same week in 2019, off-premise alcohol sales were up 22%, as seen in the following chart.
Despite the difficult comparisons, RTD cocktails were up 184%. Table wines decreased 19.2% within wine while sparkling wine was up 18.4% in the four weeks ended April 10. Canned wine grew 44.1%, while boxed wine was up 13.7%. In the beer category, hard seltzer sales were up 21.7%, hard tea was up 38%, and Mexican imports were up 7.8%. Non-alcoholic beer was up 37.2%, premium lights were down 10.7%, below premium was down 15%, and super-premium was down 0.5%.
Truly drives a beat and raise (SAM)
Boston Beer reported Q1 EPS of $5.26, which includes a tax benefit of $.69, vs. consensus expectations of $2.61. Depletions grew 48%, while shipments grew 60.1%, driven by Truly and Twisted Tea. As we discussed in our Consumer Staples Themes & Thesis Updates presentation yesterday, Truly “won” the share fight in Q1 as the earlier introduction of its innovation and the user-generated brand messaging of White Claw combined to lead to Truly’s share gains in Q1. White Claw has recently introduced its innovation and will seek to reclaim the share it lost in Q1.
Management raised guidance for the year to $22-26 from $20-24, a 6.5% increase excluding the tax benefit. Management expects depletion and shipment growth of 40-50% from 35-45%. Management sees shelf space gains, and 60-90% category growth will underpin growth this year.
Danone looks to positives in plant-based milk (STKL)
Danone’s plant-based products had their fifth consecutive quarter of LFL sales growth. In North America, plant-based LFL sales grew HSD%. Plant-based yogurt and ice cream grew at a “very fast double-digit” growth rate. In Europe, the company’s plant-based portfolio grew double digits. Inflation has risen MSD% driven by milk and dairy ingredients. The company will seek selective price increases to offset the pressure.
Juergen Esser, Chief Financial, Technology, and Data Officer, said, “We are investing into the differentiation and superiority, especially of our Silk master brand as we speak. We have started a new Silk almond campaign, which shows the first positive market share results. While on soy, we are reframing our portfolio, building on the nutritional benefit of that unique ingredient and are also seeing here first promising results, with the segment returning back to growth since the beginning of the year.” Management said Silk oat would be restaged – “We are conscious that we need to catch up fast on this segment, but are determined and probably, more importantly, we are confident in our ability to accelerate based on those initiatives.” Silk is a leader in the soy milk category, so management would like to keep it growing while focusing on participating in the faster growth in almonds and oats. Danone has been slow to readjust to the changing preferences in plant-based milk.
