Join our Hedgeye Demography analyst Neil Howe on a monthly research odyssey, as we dive into the latest news that loomed largest on his radar screen the past month.
Last month we saw new CBO projections, more preliminary data on birth rates, and a continued expansion in America’s vaccine rollout.
Here are my top insights from March 2021.
The CBO has released their latest set of projections. Underlying this gloomy fiscal news is an aging and slower-growing economy in which net immigration will comprise all additions to the population past the year 2043.
According to the latest CBO budget outlook, the federal debt will nearly double to 202% of GDP by 2051. That's not all: Outlays will endlessly outpace revenue, every major trust will go broke by 2035, and net interest spending will be 2X the size of defense spending by the 2040s.
According to a new analysis of annual data from 32 U.S. states, births were down by 95,000, or about 4.4%, in 2020 compared to the year before. Of the states with data available, all of them reported a drop in births except for New Hampshire
A new book, Invisible China, argues that China’s ambitions will be stymied by its failure to invest in its rural population. While the government has poured resources into cities, 70% of the workforce remains unskilled.
Homicides Spiked in 2020 (3/26)
According to a new study, the U.S. saw its largest single-year increase in homicides ever in 2020. Though most other types of crime have declined during the pandemic, shootings and killings surged in multiple cities in late spring and remained high through the fall.
Covid-19 Pandemic Update (3/11)
In this episode we go over the global Covid-19 case and death counts. I also provide updates on the vaccine rollout, the state of variants, and new evidence behind face mask wearing. I end the show by answering viewer submitted questions.
Top Podcast Episode
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Managing Director, Demography
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ABOUT NEIL HOWE
Neil Howe is a renowned authority on generations and social change in America. An acclaimed bestselling author and speaker, he is the nation's leading thinker on today's generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America's future.
A historian, economist, and demographer, Howe is also a recognized authority on global aging, long-term fiscal policy, and migration. He is a senior associate to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., where he helps direct the CSIS Global Aging Initiative.
Howe has written over a dozen books on generations, demographic change, and fiscal policy, many of them with William Strauss. Howe and Strauss' first book, Generations is a history of America told as a sequence of generational biographies. Vice President Al Gore called it "the most stimulating book on American history that I have ever read" and sent a copy to every member of Congress. Newt Gingrich called it "an intellectual tour de force." Of their book, The Fourth Turning, The Boston Globe wrote, "If Howe and Strauss are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets."
Howe and Strauss originally coined the term "Millennial Generation" in 1991, and wrote the pioneering book on this generation, Millennials Rising. His work has been featured frequently in the media, including USA Today, CNN, the New York Times, and CBS' 60 Minutes.
Previously, with Peter G. Peterson, Howe co-authored On Borrowed Time, a pioneering call for budgetary reform and The Graying of the Great Powers with Richard Jackson.
Howe received his B.A. at U.C. Berkeley and later earned graduate degrees in economics and history from Yale University.