Trendspotting: US 2019 Fertility Drop Confirmed

NewsWire: 4/6/21

• The final data for 2019 is in: Births dropped -1% from 2018 to 3.75 million. The TFR declined to 1.705, and the mean age for moms at first birth (27.0) rose to a record high. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
• NH: The 2019 official birth data are finally in. And the findings were as expected: The US total fertility rate fell for the fifth year in a row. 
• What did the report conclude? The TFR fell -1%, from 1.730 in 2018 to 1.705 in 2019. That is almost identical to the drop estimated in the preliminary report. (See “US Fertility Continues to Fall.”) Every major racial and ethnic group recorded a decline. The most significant decreases were among white and Asian women (-2% for each group).
• Every age bracket below 34 also experienced a drop--which once again points to an absence of a early-30s catch up by Millennial women. Older age brackets continued to see increases, but these were minimal and (in terms of the overall birth number) unimportant.

• One of the more interesting findings of the report was the continued drop in twin births. The twin birth rate fell -2%, from 32.6 in 2018 to 32.1 in 2019. The number of twin births has dropped 5% since 2014, marking five straight years of decline.
• What’s going on? A few years ago, we asked the same question. (See “After a Long Rise, Rate of Twin Births is Dropping.”) We found that doctors are now less likely to implant multiple ova during IVF treatments. There is more awareness of the increased health risks of carrying twins. And changes in IVF technology mean that it no longer improves the odds of getting pregnant.

• Lately, we have been writing about the pandemic baby bust. Preliminary data show a significant decline in 2020 births, on the order of roughly -5%. (See “More Evidence Confirms 2020 Baby Bust.”) Covid-19 was indeed an important factor in this decline. However, the long-term fertility trend outlined by this report underscores that 2020 births were on track to drop even without a global pandemic.