Call Now | 2Q21 Health Care Themes | March 31 @2PM | Re-Opening, Pent-Up Demand, & Digital Health

Overview

Our main themes continue to be Re-opening, Pent-Up Demand, Testing, and Digital Health. Although we have not changed for several months, we continue to advance some ideas, discard others, and look for new ways to connect the high level perspective to specific tickers.  Increasingly, we have been able to connect our high level view of the US Medical Economy and specific themes to individual tickers through estimate momentum, or the MicroQuads.

Topics

Estimate Momentum | Depending on your perspective, price volatility has resulted from either resurgent COVID-19 case volume, a slow vaccine roll out, or rising inflation, to call on some of the more prominent news cycles of the last few weeks.  We would add our own narrative that we are seeing the transition from COVID-19 recovery to re-opening, and the transition from a steep and positive estimate momentum trend to a more subdued and uncertain 2022 outlook.  Estimate momentum has been stalling since late 4Q20 and as forward estimates include less of the recovery, the more volatility we are seeing.  We've expressed our view by cutting back on longs and adding a short in recent weeks. We will continue to prioritize shorts in the near- term.  Based on our outlook, estimate momentum won't begin to re-accelerate for many names in our space until July 2021.

Forecast Algorithms | During our presentation we will have a special focus on our Forecast Algorithms, our proprietary machine learning process we use to forecast company key drivers for companies such as JNJ, HCA, UHS, WBA, EYE, HRC, LH, DGX, SYK, and USPH.  The methodology directly connects the drivers of the US Medical Economy to the top- line drivers of our companies.  They also point to gaps between expectations and reality, and most critically, the inflections in acceleration that are critical within the MIcroQuad-Macro Quad framework. 

Idea Hunt | We constantly have new ideas that we continue to drive through our process and push toward active longs and shorts.  We’re looking for those tickers where theme, estimate momentum, and a high confidence forecast line up.  We'll touch on these names, key drivers, recent findings, and more during the presentation.   

All data available upon request. Please reach out to  with any inquiries.

Thomas Tobin
Managing Director


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William McMahon
Analyst


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Justin Venneri
Director, Primary Research


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