NEWSWIRE: 3/01/21
- In 2020, South Korea’s fertility rate fell even further to 0.84. This is down from the country’s previous record low of 0.92 a year earlier and is the lowest fertility rate in the world. (Reuters)
- NH: At a time of startling demographic milestones, count on South Korea to lead the way.
- For the past several years, South Korea's total fertility rate (TFR) has been the lowest in the world. Over a year ago, we reported that it officially fell to 0.98 in 2018, which is to my knowledge the first time that an entire nation (absent catastrophe) has experienced an annual TFR lower than one. See "South Korea's Total Fertility Rate Falls Below One," where we also lay out all the drivers that mitigate against baby making in South Korea--from high education and high urbanization to rising affluence and the suffocating impact of Confucian family values.
- Then, a few months later, we noted with surprise that South Korea's TFR plunged even further--to 0.88 in 3Q of 2019. (See "World's Lowest Birth Rate Record to be Broken by South Korea, Again.")
- Now the numbers (preliminary, to be sure) are in for 2020. They point to a TFR of 0.84. And that isn't just for a quarter. That is for the year.
- In absolute numbers, live births declined from 302,676 in 2019 to 272,400 in 2020, which is a drop of exactly -10.0%. In the last three months of 2020 (Q4), the YOY drop was -12.6%. In December alone it was only -7.8%.
- This is not the same pattern we're seeing in the United States or Western Europe. (See "U.S. Births Now in Free Fall" and "Pandemic Baby Bust Reaches Italy and France.") There we noticed a smaller birth decline YoY for 2020 as a whole (more like -5%), but a steeper decline YoY in December and in January of this year (more like -20%). That's because South Korea, though hit earlier and harder the pandemic, managed it much better. Total Covid-19 deaths in South Korea amounted to only 1,600, which amounts to only 31 deaths per million--versus roughly 1,582 deaths per million in America. Yes, that's 50X fewer deaths per capita. Consequently, pregnancies were less affected by the pandemic's arrival.
- For the West, this means that its birth decline in 2021 is likely to be quite a bit larger than in 2020, maybe going from -5% to well over -10%, which would also be a somewhat larger fall than South Korea's. The good news, though, is that the West can expect the decline to be temporary: Once the health and economic emergency eases, we can expect its births to rise with a nine-month lag, though whether they will rise all the way back to their pre-pandemic level remains an open question.
- For South Korea, the long-term news is more sobering. The double-digit monthly birth declines South Korea experienced through most of 2020 were triggered by pregnancy decisions in 2H 2019, when the economic and political situation was actually rather favorable. This means there is no compelling reason for the country to expect the negative numbers of 2020 to improve any time soon. Ominously, for the first time, the total population of South Korea fell in 2020. (See "South Korea is in a Demographic Free Fall" and "South Korea's Population Shrinks.")
- Already, South Korean policymakers are scrambling to adapt to the decline in younger age brackets, especially the "crisis of extinction" they see showing up in rural towns. (See "South Korea Tries to Get Ahead of Population Decline" and "South Korea's Declining Birth Rate Means Fewer Soldiers.") They have yet to devise an action plan to reverse the plummeting trend in marriages--or the alarming rise in suicides among young women. (See "In Japan and South Korea, Suicides Surge Among Young Women.")
