Online grocery accelerates in January (KR)
According to a Brick Meets Click/Mercatus survey, online grocery sales increased 15% in January to $9.3B from the previous survey in November, as seen in the chart below. Delivery (3rd or 1st party) and pickup (curbside, in-store) orders accounted for 77% of online grocery spend. Ship to home (parcel carrier) grocery sales was consistent with November. The increase in sales was driven by an increase in the number of households. In January, 69.7M households placed an average of 2.8 online orders. The average order value fell 11%. The poll surveyed 1,776 US adults from Jan. 28-31. Online grocery shopping penetration peaked in April at 76.7M households. The percentage of shoppers who said they were extremely or very likely to place another online order with the same provider within the next month fell 32 percentage points to 56%. The biggest drop in “likelihood to use again” was for pickup. The online grocery will drop in the future if the shopping experience does not meet expectations. Based on current trends, online grocery spend will likely be up YOY as the pandemic is anniversaries despite lower food at home spending.
Wine sales decline 9% in January (BSPE)
Winery DTC shipments grew 21% to $165M in January. Off-premise sales tracked by Nielsen grew 19% to $1.111B. Wine bottles priced between $11 and $30 saw the strongest growth during January, with large wineries up 41% in sales. “All price tiers again north of $11 continued to grow at a rapid pace,” according to Sovos ShipCompliant. The standouts for the month were Napa and Oregon wines. Retail sales growth slowed in November and December, but January returned to the levels of June through October. In the DTC channel, the average bottle price of shipments fell $1.33 compared with the previous year. Total U.S. wine sales fell 9% to $3.615M in January and decreased 9% on a trailing 12-month basis due to the weakness in the on-premise channel. Total U.S. wine sales can be seen in the following chart. Constellation Brands sold its portfolio of brands below $11 per bottle, and Vintage Wine Estates (BSPE) focuses on the fastest-growing segment of wine, $10-20 per bottle. Vintage Wine Estates also has a greater mix of retail and DTC than the industry.
Convenience stores driving hard seltzer sales (SAM)
Total beer, FMB, and cider sales increased 11.6% at off-premise retailers for the four-week period ended February 6. Craft beer sales increased 13.2%, imports increased 12%, and domestic super premiums increased 13.8%. Hard seltzer sales in the four-week period increased 105% at convenience stores YOY while sales increased 55.9% in food stores and 59.9% in drug stores. Hard seltzer sales were underpenetrated in the convenience store and on-premise channels compared to packaged goods stores. Across all off-premise channels, hard seltzer sales increased by 73.4%. White Claw sales increased 67.8% in convenience stores while Truly sales grew 189%. Smirnoff’s Spiked Sparkling Seltzer grew 146.9%, and Bud Light Seltzer grew 157.4% in convenience stores. Truly sales grew 104.2% in food stores, White Claw grew 16.2%, Bud Light Seltzer grew 27.3%, and Smirnoff sales decreased 4.3%. Off-premise sales for the four-week period increased 59.1% for Boston Beer (with Samuel Adams +3.4%), 15.2% for Constellation Brands, and 31.2% for Mark Anthony Brands.
