NewsWire: 2/23/21
- New numbers from Italy and France indicate that these countries are also seeing pandemic-era baby busts. Figures from December 2020 and January 2021 show that births in several major cities have declined 10% to 25%. (The Washington Post)
- NH: Over the last few weeks, I have reported on preliminary data on birth trends for 2020. And as expected, the number of births has fallen in many countries during the pandemic. In China, the number of registered newborns fell by 15%. (See “Registered Births in China Tumbled 15% in 2020.") And in the US, it's likely that the number of births fell by 5%. (See “US Births Now in Free Fall.”) Of course, the pandemic only impacted live births at the very end of 2020, nine months after the initial lockdowns.
- Now, we have our first look at two major European countries: Italy and France.
- In Italy, the Italian National Institute of Statistics just released their 2020 findings on the number of births in 15 cities. Collectively these cities represent about 6 million people, or 10% of Italy’s population. The researchers found that the number of newborns in 2020 dropped by 5.21% YoY. In December alone, the number fell by 21.6% from a year earlier. This pattern (-5% for the year and -15% for December) is almost identical to what we saw in the emerging numbers from several large states in the US.
- Now let's turn to France. Hospital data are showing a similarly large drop in births. In Paris, Saint-Denis Hospital is reporting a 20% decline in births from December ‘20 through January ‘21 when compared to the same two months last year. The five most prominent hospitals in northern France also reported decreases in January deliveries ranging from -10% to -25% YoY.
- Again, this data is only showing the effects of the first two months of lockdown. Italy became the first European country to shut down, starting on March 9. France entered its lockdown a few days later, starting on March 17. Moving 9 months and 5 days (average gestation period) from March only gets you into December. As 2021 continues, you can expect to see similar decreases in births reflecting the full range of last year’s lockdowns.
- Before the pandemic began, Italy and France were running on two different fertility trajectories. For years, Italy has been plagued with a low TFR hovering around 1.29. France, on the other hand, has had one of Europe’s highest TFRs, hovering around 1.88. Births falling in both countries shows that the baby bust is hitting European countries across the board, and no nation is immune.
