Politics. The 2022 budget resolution has now passed the House and the Senate, clearing the way for reconciliation and passage of the White House’s $1.9T Relief/Stimulus package, or something close to it. In addition to the substantial amount of money flowing into all the usual spaces of health care, the plan calls for certain temporary - but likely to become permanent – changes that could prolong the disruption of the female workforce.
The White House is calling for an increase in the child tax from $2,000 to $3,000 and $3,600 for children under six. Importantly, this credit would be refundable. Functionally, refundable tax credits work just like an unemployment benefit. A pro-rated amount of $250 per child will be deposited monthly into the eligible individuals bank account.
When combined with delays in school openings, extended unemployment benefits and more direct stimulus, the tax credits are another reason for second earners in a family – usually women - to stay out of the workforce.
Policy. Female employment and the policies that drive it have special implications to health care where most workers are women. The BLS data released last week suggests certain policy interventions are paying off. Employment of women in the health care industry improved relative to economy wide female employment.
That improvement is likely a result of the dramatic increase in hourly wages in December. Normally, such wage inflation would be cause for alarm. However, the terms of disbursements from the Provider Relief Fund allow recipients to offset COVID-19 related costs like high wage demands with federal relief monies.
The trend is important to watch, not just for $AMN. If the wage pressure remains due to policies that discourage a return to work, and no additional relief is provided, the system will have to adjust. How it does so is still part of our daily speculation. Increased efficiency is one path. Another is less health care.
Power. Opening schools, a near pre-requisite for reducing unemployment levels especially among women, is proving to be needle President Biden needs to thread and it is not going well. Last week, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rachel Walensky indicated that vaccinations were not a pre-requisite for opening schools. That comment was quickly walked back by the White House and “clarified” by Walensky.
Biden needs schools to remain largely closed in order to convince Congress to appropriate $400B for various measures from building improvements to vaccinations. While Congress can probably be convinced that money for vaccination support is appropriate, they are not likely to provide nonspecific support for local government in the name of schools reopening.
Meanwhile, parents stay home, children aren’t being educated and the costs for all that continue to skyrocket.
Call with questions and enjoy your Super Bowl Sunday.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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