NewsWire: 2/1/21
- The number of U.S. workers who are calling out sick has been at near-record levels for months. Though unemployment has declined from its pandemic-era peaks, high levels of absenteeism continue to be a drag on the economic recovery. (Bloomberg)
- NH: Since the beginning of the pandemic, businesses have struggled with skyrocketing levels of absenteeism. And this phenomenon has been mostly overlooked; the BLS monthly jobs report counts these absent workers as "employed."
- A USA Today analysis found that in 2020, more people called out of work sick than in any year in the last two decades. The most common reason was personal illness. On average, 1.5M workers called out ill every month. That’s a 45% increase from the previous 20-year average. The second biggest cause of missed work was problems finding child care. On average, 67K workers called out due to their children every month. That’s a 250% increase from the previous 20-year average.
- This trend in absenteeism has been V-shaped. In April, the number of workers absent due to illness was at an all-time high of 2M. By September, it had dropped to 1.3M. But by December, it again rose to 1.9M.
- BLS does calculate an "absenteeism rate," which is the total number of weeks lost to illness as a share of total weeks of full-employment across the economy. That has risen from 0.9% for all of 2019 to 1.3% for all of 2020. Which means that, in a bad infection month (like December or January), the share of workers who are de facto not working is at least a half a percent higher than the official unemployment would suggest.
- The rise in absenteeism has hit the manufacturing sector especially hard. In the Dec ISM manufacturing survey, one of the most common complaints was sick/quarantining employees causing delays in the supply chain. GM reportedly put office workers on the manufacturing floor to keep production going.
- The solution to this problem is the vaccine. If workers are vaccinated, absentee levels should return to normal. Of course, the immediate issue is vaccine availability. But even when distribution increases, if people refuse to get vaccinated, absenteeism will continue to be a problem. I suspect you will start to see some businesses making the vaccine mandatory. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby has already stated that he wants the vaccine to be compulsory for his employees.
