Non-dairy milk out of stocks (STKL)
CPG in-stock levels have generally been hovering 1-2% below the baseline of product availability in the last few months. Alternative milk out of stocks has been more prevalent than most food categories and varies by region, as seen in the map below. Within alternative milk, there are significant share shifts. Almond milk has been growing at a low double-digit rate, soy milk has been declining, and oat milk has grown at a 200% clip. There is a secular shift away from dairy milk to alternative milk due to several factors. Almond milk is the share gainer from dairy milk and the category leader in alternative milk because oat milk requires years of capacity expansion to take the top spot.
The out of stock level for alternative milk is comparable to personal thermometers but significantly less severe than hand sanitizers or color-safe bleach. For more detail about the growth in alternative milk and oat milk, CLICK HERE for our SunOpta Best Idea Black Book.
Wine sales end the year in a decelerating trend (STZ)
DTC shipments increased 23% in December, accelerating from +8% in November, as seen in the table below. DTC shipments of $334M in the month are a fraction of the more than $2B in off-premise sales. Off-premise sales increased 6.7% in December, decelerating from +11% in the previous four-week period. The five-week period ended January 2 grew slightly faster, up 9% in off-premise. Off-premise sales have decelerated for most of the year since the peak growth rate in May. Price tiers above $11 a bottle grew double digits. Wine at the higher price points continued to outpace lower-priced wine. Constellation Brands recently completed the sale of its <$11 a bottle brand portfolio to focus on the higher-priced brands that have seen better growth rates.
Plant-based meat shift? (BYND)
The pandemic did not cause more consumers to shift from purchasing beef to plant-based meat. From January to September 2020, the percentage of consumers claiming to eat beef weekly has increased to 72% compared to 67% in the prior year. Also, the percentage of people with a positive perception of beef has increased, with positive perceptions reaching 70% for the first time. According to Beef Research, positive perceptions regarding how cattle are raised increased 18% compared to 2019. Fresh meat demand has remained relatively stable for the last six months, as seen in the chart below. Beyond Meat’s retail sales have decelerated over the same time frame. The two trends taken together hardly support the idea that consumers are shifting away from meat towards plant-based meat; for a replay of our Beyond Meat Best Idea update, Black Book, CLICK HERE.
