NewsWire: 1/14/21
- In 2020, South Korea’s population fell for the first time on record as births slipped to a new low. The population declined by about 21,000 people, and average household size also shrank to just 2.24 people. (The Wall Street Journal)
- NH: Last February, I predicted that 2020 would be the first year South Korea has more deaths than births. (See “South Korea Is in a Demographic Free Fall.”) And sure enough, Statistics Korea reported that there were 307,764 deaths and only 275,815 births in 2020. The reason for the population decline is twofold: a low total fertility rate (TFR) and a rapidly aging population.
- I have written extensively about South Korea’s low TFR, and I've often discussed its many drivers. There's no need for me to dwell on them here. But they include modernization, such as growing urbanization, greater affluence, and rising education levels. And they also include Confucianism, which is leading more women to avoid marriage due to the onerous duties it imposes on mothers. (See “South Korea’s Total Fertility Drops Below 1.”)
- Some demographers believe the pandemic has further lowered the TFR. Covid-19 and economic uncertainty may have led to couples putting off childbearing.
- On top of a low fertility rate, South Korea (which vies with Japan for the highest national life expectancy) also has a rapidly aging population. Currently, 9.1% of the population is age 65+. And according to UN projections, that will nearly triple to 23.1% in the next 45 years.
- Given falling fertility--and the fact that older people can't live forever--South Korea may be entering a spiral of long-term population decline. Statistics Korea predicts that by 2067 South Korea's population will be 39 million, down from 51.8 million in 2020. That’s a 25% drop in just under 50 years.
- Of course, South Korea isn’t the only country to undergo population decline. Japan has experienced this almost every year since 2005. Japan’s population started aging much earlier than South Korea’s; their TFR went below replacement in 1974 when South Korea’s was still around 4. While UN projections still have Japan with a higher share of those age 65+ in the coming years, South Korea is catching up at a stunning pace.
