Millennial Leaders: What's Holding Them Back? NewsWire

NEWSWIRE: 1/11/21 

• In a recent op-ed, Millennial writer Jill Filipovic highlights the dearth of under-40 Americans in Congress. Given the differences in how Boomers and Millennials have experienced the economy, she argues, it’s more important than ever that younger people contribute to policy decisions. (Medium)
• NH: Jill Filipovic (born 1983) complains that the aging of American leaders is shutting Millennials out of office--and keeping the "Millennial voice" out of national politics.
• In previous NewsWires, I have often discussed the climbing age of U.S. political leadership, both in the White House (see "Why Does America Have Old Leaders?" and "How Old Should a President Be?") and among the Democrats in Congress ("Does the Democratic Party Need a Facelift?").
• There are several drivers pushing this trend. But, contrary to popular belief, driver number one is not rising life expectancy. Rather, the most important cause is the early and conspicuous rise of Boomers into elected leadership positions and, as they have aged in place, the extreme aversion of Gen-Xers to run against them for political office. The reason for that, in turn, lies in the alternating historical rhythm between "dominant" and "recessive" political generations in U.S. history. (See e.g. my discussion in "Last Chance for Silent Generation to Lead.")
• In other words, the average age of Congress is not rising because the Millennial share of Congress is small. Given their current age, it's pretty typical. There are now 29 Millennial House Reps (6.7% of the House), which is close to the recent historical average when a generation's oldest members reach 39. And, just a few days ago, Georgia just elected the first Millennial Senator, Jon Ossoff, at age 33--which is quite young. Since 1970, American voters have only elected 3 senators at age 33 or younger. (One of them, Joe Biden, was elected in 1972 at age 29--which was OK because he turned 30 before being sworn in the next year!)
• So let me repeat: The leadership age is rising mainly because Xers--who are now reaching midlife when their numbers in Congress should be large--continue to get edged out by older Boomers. Xers have also been marginalized in presidential races: Note we had our first Millennial presidential candidate (Pete Buttigieg) only four years after any Xer not named Barack Obama mounted a serious primary challenge. (See "Gen X's Short-Lived Presidential Spotlight.")
• Filipovic also claims that it's older Democratic elites in particular that are shutting out aspiring Millennial leaders. Here she makes a good point.
• Young voters as a whole are now opting by a large margin for a Democrat at the top of the ticket. Of all those under age 30 choosing between Clinton/Biden and Trump in the last two presidential elections, 60% chose the Democrat in 2016 and 63% chose the Democrat in 2020. In nearly every survey, Millennial voters side with the core policy platform of the Democratic Party over the GOP.
• Amazingly, however, among all Millennial congresspeople (born in 1982 or after) who will be serving in 2021, Republicans outnumber Democrats 16 to 13. The number was tied last year (at 9 and 9). But in November's election, the Republicans picked up 7 net new members and the Democrats only picked up 4.
• This fact may surprise readers who associate Millennials in Congress with the confrontationally progressive "squad" or "gang of four" elected in 2018. But in fact two members of the squad--Rashida Tlaib (born 1976) and Ayanna Pressley (born 1974)--are clearly Xers. And as for the other two (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar), they are not necessarily representative of their peers.
• Consider AOC, who is one of 5 Millennials representing New York. Two of the others are upstate Republicans, including Elise Stefanik, who became in 2014 the youngest woman ever elected to Congress. She serves on the Judiciary Committee and weighed in heavily against Trump's impeachment. As for the two Millennial Democrats (Grace Meng and Ritchie Torres, both from New York City), both are focused on practical issues important to their districts and neither has AOC's taste for national media. Or consider Ilhan Omar of Minnesota. Of all 7 Millennial congresspeople from a Midwestern state, she is the only Democrat. The 6 others are Republicans.
• Why aren't more Millennial Democrats getting elected? That's a good question.
• One obvious problem, in 2020, was the poor down-ballot performance of the Democratic Party as a whole. Running as "not Trump" sure helped Joe Biden, but it did nothing to help local Democrats who were buffeted by a confused and often offputting image of what the national party stood for. This downdraft was especially damaging to young reps, many of whom had just won in 2018 in purple districts. (See this trenchant analysis by one of the very smartest Millennial political analysts, David Schor.)
• There may be another structural obstacle facing aspiring young Democrats. And that is the "professionalization" of bluezone politics. In urban and often affluent Democratic-leaning districts, running for office typically requires a lot of organization, media, and money. That tips the playing field to older and experienced pols.
• What's more, according to Robert Putnam (in his new 2020 edition of Bowling Alone), urban residents are much less likely to participate personally in community affairs or engage socially with others. (This includes attending a public meeting, serving or volunteering for a local organization, visiting neighbors, attending church, and so on.) Putnam, though a bluezone progressive himself, puts it pretty bluntly: "Residents in small towns and rural areas are more altruistic, honest, and trusting than other Americans." 
• What all this means for young, ambitious, and extroverted Democrats is that it's typically a lot harder for them to get engaged in their communities on a casual, informal, retail level. And that means that it's a lot harder for them to get started in politics than it is for young Republicans.
• Filipovic makes it sound like older generations are systematically out to suppress youth participation in politics and turn young people into a class of indentured servants. (See "In a New Book, A Millennial Writer Appeals to Boomers for a Change.") The truth is that Millennial voter participation over the last 8 years is way up (up even more than for older adults) and that Millennials are indeed running for office and getting elected. What irritates her, perhaps, is that so many belong to the wrong party.