Overview
With the dates and times set for companies presenting at this year's J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference (January 11 - January 14), we are preparing for a busy week of presentations and subsequent data updates. In preparation of additional color around the topics on everyone's minds, we felt it a good time to update our Genetic Testing Lab Chart Book and provide it for your review. Alongside the routine charts and tables we generally prepare, we have included additional incremental resources that we believe may be helpful in your own research process as well. The work presented on these slides is only a sample of what we are able to see within our proprietary claims data set, so please feel free to reach out with any additional questions or clarifications. All of these workbooks are available upon request.
Takeaways
- EXAS | Cologuard Volume Appears Back on Track… for Now In the initial weeks following the COVID-19 lockdowns, our claims data showed that Cologuard volume was returning, but more slowly than other labs. At one point, it seemed as if Cologuard claims may “roll over” altogether. That notion has since abated in the final months of the year as volume looks to have returned to pre-COVID levels and the trend is continuing to improve.
- GH | Guardant360 Looks to be Expanding Outside its Initial Market A shift in the mix of diagnosis codes away from lung cancer supports the view that Guardant360 is beginning to successfully penetrate additional indications, and feedback from recent interviews suggests that oncologists have started sending tissue and plasma (blood) out at the same time due to the time-to-result differential.
- NTRA | Favorable Set-Up Supported by a Defensible Moat We're "Team Natera" and think consensus numbers fail to fully reflect its opportunity. Key thesis points to support NTRA include NIPT continuing to benefit from growth in average-risk pregnancies; Signatera just getting started in colorectal cancer; and broader insurance coverage, making access easier.
- NEO | An “Adult-Like” Approach to Oncology/Genetic Testing Keith hit the button on NEO in Hedgeye's Real-Time Alerts product last week on weakness. This name remains on our Long Bias list following the announcement of a common stock offering (4,081,632 shares at $49/share for gross proceeds of $200MM) + convertible senior notes ($300,000,000 principal of 0.25% due 2028 for gross proceeds of $300MM) issuance.
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Genetic Testing Lab Chart Book | Key Data Updates, Claims Analyses, and Forecasts CLICK HERE to access the associated slides. |
PREVIEW | CHARTS FROM THE DECK
Exact Sciences (EXAS)
Guardant Health (GH)
Natera (NTRA)
All data available upon request. Please reach out to with any inquiries.
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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