The difficult comparisons for CPG (KR)
As we turn the page on 2020, many consumer packaged goods categories will find it difficult to report growth in 2021. IRI based its growth forecasts on a June 2021 COVID-19 vaccine assumption. As seen in the 2021 IRI forecast below, most CPG categories will range from up 5% to down 20%. Categories that are minimally or negatively impacted by restrictions like candy, cosmetics, and hair products will likely see growth in 2021. When comparing against 2019, most CPG categories will still see growth of more than 10%.
UK grocery demand reaccelerates (NOMD)
The week ended December 26, total CPG demand in the U.K. reaccelerated to +21% from -1% YOY in the prior week. As seen in the chart below, frozen food reaccelerated to +28% from +4% in the prior week. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that COVID-19 lockdown measures are “probably going to get tougher.” Most of the country is currently at the highest Tier 4 level, which requires the closure of nonessential stores and places like gyms and recreation centers. Curfews and closing schools are on the table for areas with worsening outbreaks. The higher level of restrictions has led to increased spending on food at home. The UK is Nomad Food's largest country by sales, representing 31% of overall sales.
Beer sales in Canada during the pandemic (TAP)
Beer sales in Canada by volume have been relatively flat during the pandemic, as seen in the chart below. Beer volumes in 2020 through October were up 0.2% compared to 2019. Beer sales by volume have been in a gradual decline before the pandemic.
Total beer volumes declined 3.0% in 2019. Domestic beer volumes declined 3.9% in 2019, while import volumes increased by 1.5%. 16% of total beer sales in 2019 were imports. Draft represented 10% of sales by package type in Canada. Per capita consumption has been declining steadily, as seen in the following chart. Per capita consumption declined by 4.6% in 2019. Molson Coors has about a third of the Canadian beer market share.
