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Editor's Note: Below is a complimentary research note written by National Security analyst LTG Dan Christman. To access our Macro Policy research please email sales@hedgeye.com. |
True to the “NO Team of Rivals” descriptor of the Biden cabinet picks, General (Ret) Lloyd Austin was the surprising selection by the president-elect to head the Pentagon, besting former Undersecretary of Defense Michelle Flournoy.
Biden knew Austin well while he served as CENTCOM commander, respects the General’s views on the security dynamic in the Middle East, and will need Austin’s help on the execution of U.S. policy in this always challenging region.
But despite Austin’s impressive credentials earned in a four-decade military career, two major issues have surfaced that complicate the General’s confirmation:
First, Austin’s lack of East Asia experience. China will of course be THE strategic challenge for the president-elect. In this light, the Biden team’s pick for the key subordinates for Austin will be critical – the Deputy Secretary, and especially, the Undersecretary for Policy. The importance of that billet has been obscured by President Trump’s selection of a truly bizarre retired Army brigadier general to fill it on an “Acting” basis. Nevertheless, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy has been for years the critical position in the Pentagon for managing U.S. foreign and security policy and interacting with the State Department. Watch carefully who fills this critical billet.
Second, the politics surrounding his confirmation. The expected partisan blow-back has been coupled now with the drama again of securing Congressional approval of a retired military officer who has not been on the retired roles for at least seven years.
The surprise over the last two weeks has been the deep and emotional concern expressed at the Biden nod to a recently retired General, and especially one with corporate experience in defense-related firms. This has come, as expected, from groups that would object to ANY selectee who has seen the inside of a board room; one organization even called the appointment “a grave, democracy-threatening mistake!” But the criticism has also arisen from those with respected views on U.S. civil-military relations who cite worries about “civilian control” of the military.
The worry naturally stems from the Congressional 2017 waiver of the seven-year rule for GEN (Ret) Jim Mattis. Many in Congress who might otherwise have deferred to the president-elect on nominating a retired flag officer now have misgivings on agreeing again so quickly after approving Mattis.
But the worries are overdrawn. As retired Admiral Dennis Blair, a former Director of National Intelligence, outlined last week in the Washington Post, the ethos of the officer corps has been embedded since its Revolutionary inception in democratic control of the armed forces. The oath to the constitution and the authorities given by Congress to the chain-of-command should leave no doubt that officer loyalty lies with the American people, through their elected representatives, not to a person - whether in civilian clothes or mufti. There is no “Seven Days in May” threat in granting a waiver to Austin, and then confirming him.
So, If confirmed, what would GEN(Ret) Austin bring to the foreign policy fight? The value-added would be impressive:
Austin’s intimate knowledge of the Middle East theater has already been mentioned; despite a decade-long effort by U.S. Presidents to distance the U.S. from this region, significant security interests remain. The Persian Gulf - Austin’s “back yard” when he was CENTCOM Commander - will be in the cross-hairs as the new President addresses the challenge from Iran and its proxies in the immediate period following inauguration.
Little acknowledged, however, is Austin’s skill in managing daunting logistical challenges. The General oversaw one of the armed forces’ most complex logistical tasks since the ‘02/’03 build-up for the Iraq War when he served in 2010 as the Commander of “Iraq Operation New Dawn” – the complete withdrawal of over 100,000 US troops from Iraq, along with the bulk of the combat equipment.
As the COVID19 vaccine distribution plan hits full speed next month, with a vital DOD role in its execution, Austin’s Iraq background will prove invaluable.
Further, as a coalition commander over multiple combat tours in the Middle East, Austin worked closely and successfully with allies both from the region and NATO. He knows what friends and allies contribute to the larger fight. Frankly, so did Jim Mattis. The difference this time is that the Defense Secretary would have a boss who reflexively internalizes their importance.
But as Biden gathers a team of intimates, not rivals, the question lingers: can any of them, but especially the Defense Secretary, say, “No?” Yes. Lloyd Austin was perhaps best known, even before the announcement on his nomination, for telling President Obama and Vice President Biden that U.S. forces in Iraq should not be reduced to zero.
For reasons that will be debated by historians for years, they declined to follow his advice; the rise of ISIS of course ensued. Austin has never been known as a “yes” man; his basic character that reflects courage and candor will not change if he is confirmed.
Bottom Line: Austin is likely to be confirmed. His nomination may well turn on the confirmation hearings; a strong performance there, together with a stable of respected nominees for the Deputy and Under Secretary positions, should significantly boost Austin’s chances.
What the Department of Defense needs most now is stability, and Lloyd Austin is singularly well-equipped to provide that.
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ABOUT LIEUTENANT GENERAL DAN CHRISTMAN
LTG Dan Christman, USA, Ret. serves as Hedgeye Potomac Research’s Senior National Security Analyst, providing deep insight into international affairs and national security. Most recently, Dan provided strategic leadership on international issues affecting the business community for organizations such as the US Chamber of Commerce. Dan’s long history of leadership includes his service as a United States Army lieutenant general and former Superintendent of the United States Military Academy. He served in highly visible and strategically important positions and four times was awarded the Defense Distinguished Service Medal, the nation's highest peacetime service award.
He also served for two years as assistant to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, during which time he traveled with and advised Secretary of State Warren Christopher. He was centrally involved during this period with negotiations between Israel and Syria as a member of the Secretary's Middle East Peace Team. Further, Christman represented the United States as a member of NATO's Military Committee in Brussels, Belgium.
Graduating first in his class from West Point, Christman also received MPA and MSE degrees in public affairs and civil engineering from Princeton University and graduated with honors from The George Washington University Law School. He is a decorated combat veteran of Southeast Asia, where he commanded a company in the 101st Airborne Division in 1969.
