“Fortunately for us, trust is a universal attribute. It is something we all want.”
- Robin Dreeke
As I count my blessings and give thanks for all that my family and firm has this American Thanksgiving, I’ll also pray for what every human being wants in life – they want to trust there is a better way. I trust they can all believe that.
“Imagine a world where there is no trust. Our lives would be hell, since there would be no one, and nothing that we could rely on – not our parents, our institutions, our organizations, or even our friends…”
That’s an opening volley in a #behavioral book I’m reading titled The Code of Trust – An American Counterintelligence Experts Rules To Succeed. If some of you trust “no one” anymore, start with yourself. Then show us all a better way.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
To be crystal clear (if I haven’t been over the years, ha), I do not trust many government, political, and financial institutions. That said, I don’t wake up whining and crying about it at the top of every risk management morning…
I’m putting my life’s work into changing it.
Being the change you want to see in the world wasn’t just a one-liner that Mohandas Ghandi rattled off on Twitter while trying to be a snark-politicized-journo in the morning. He also reminded us that:
“Trust begets trust. He who trusts has never yet lost in the world.”
Who do you trust? Don’t worry, I’m not trying to give you a psychological exam this morning! I know who and what I trust. I also know that trust isn’t allocated to people or places in officialdom. It’s earned, every day.
Professionally, I’ve built my firm on 3 core principles since Day 1 thirteen years ago:
- Transparency
- Accountability… and
- Trust
That’s why I was interested to see (in The Code of Trust) how elite-performance organizations live these types of principles out-loud in everything they do, every day.
Briefly, knocking these pins down, one by one, when it comes to building Hedgeye:
- Transparency – we know both what we know and what we don’t know. Through multiple real-time media and content distribution platforms we are trying to learn, fail, and grow, faster, every day
- Accountability – we know we’re going to get things both right and wrong. When we are right, are we right for the right reasons? Or were we lucky? When wrong, was there something wrong with our process?
- Trust – we know a growing number of people in our profession trust us. We also know some people hate us and why. Over time we believe that our transparency, accountability and process will win us more and more trust
As our in-house Demographer and everything-big-generational-picture in Chief teammate, Neil Howe, often reminds us, we’re living through a Fourth Turning in America. That’s why there’s so much distrust in our institutions.
That’s also why there’s so much opportunity for you all to both lead on the front lines and make the turn!
In terms of helping you protect, preserve, and compound your wealth… yeah, we made “the turn” to being:
A) Long Inflation (Commodities, China, EM, etc.) and
B) Short US Dollars back in June…
And yes, thankfully, we made another turn from USA’s #Quad3 in Q3 of 2020 to a pending #Quad2 portfolio, front-running the 1H of 2021 #acceleration in US growth and inflation data…
But if we didn’t make those big macro Full Investing Cycle turns, would our apolitical and data-driven process have forced me to make the turn, eventually? A: Definitely. Why?
Because there’s a transparency and accountability to our process that forces us to have the Real Conversations both internally as a team and externally with all of you, all day, every day @Hedgeye.
Thanking all of you for your constant feedback and collaboration across our entire content platform. In Hedgeye Nation, we trust. Thanks to all of you, we continue to build a better way.
Happy Thanksgiving,
- Keith
Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Range with TREND signal in brackets:
UST 10yr Yield 0.82-0.96% (neutral)
SPX 3 (bullish)
RUT 1 (bullish)
NASDAQ 11,680-12,094 (bullish)
Tech (XLK) 118.92-123.62 (bullish)
Energy (XLE) 33.53-41.33 (bullish)
Gold Miners (GDX) 33.01-36.15 (bearish)
Shanghai Comp 3 (bullish)
Nikkei 25159-26328 (bullish)
DAX 124 (bearish)
VIX 20.19-26.19 (bearish)
USD 91.94-92.96 (bearish)
Oil (WTI) 40.98-45.77 (bullish)
Gold 1 (bearish)
Copper 3.16-3.34 (bullish)
AAPL 113-122 (bullish)
GOOGL 1 (bullish)
NFLX 469-493 (bearish)
Bitcoin 17,489-19,802 (bullish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
