NewsWire: 11/24/2020
- In Taiwan, it’s estimated that there are now more pets than children under age 15. This scenario is becoming more common as birthrates continue falling at the same time that pet ownership keeps rising. (The Guardian)
- At first glance, the claim that Taiwan has more pets than children seems like clickbait. But it actually hits on two trends we have often written about: falling fertility rates and the booming pet market. (See "Covid-19's Impact on Fertility Rates" and "Pet Care: The Four-Legged Bull Market.")
- Taiwan, along with Singapore and Hong Kong, has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. Hovering at just over 1.1, it is far below the replacement level of 2.1. The Population Reference Bureau puts Taiwan's RNI (new births minus deaths) at precisely 0.0% growth.
- The low fertility of Taiwanese is tied to their embracing of the Confucian ethic. Married women are expected to put service to their children and their husband’s family above all else. But as education and job opportunities grow, many women are choosing not to marry or at least not have children.
- Caring for pets has therefore become a popular alternative to parenthood. Pets still require attention and love, but they don’t come with any cultural obligations. It's hard to say if there are actually more pets than kids, but estimates show that the number of pets (cats and dogs) and children under 15 both hover around 2.9 million.
- Taiwan is by no means the first country to have more pets than children. Japan, which experienced fertility decline long before the rest of East Asian societies, was probably the first to acquire lots of pets. And by most calculations, even the US has more cats and dogs than kids. However, Americans have always had a lot of pets. Asian societies have few strong traditions of keeping pets. What's happening there is that these societies are deliberately turning to pets as a replacement for children.
- One thing is for sure: The pet care industry in Taiwan has skyrocketed. In 2019, Taiwanese spent US$713.9 million on pet food compared to the US$494.5 million they spent in 2015. Last year, they also spent US$402.9 million on petcare related products compared to the US$283.2 million they spent in 2015.
- When it comes to the US market, I’ve been long on the pet care industry for years. Starting first with Boomers and then with their kids, all generations are now treating their pets like "family," getting them the best insurance, food, and toys money can buy. And now that Covid-19 has everybody stuck at home, owners are in constant contact with their furry friends.
- Chewy, a mail-order pet food and grooming product company, has done exceptionally well since the pandemic began. While Chewy is majority-owned by PetSmart (private), it's stock (CHWY) has risen by over 190% YoY. Trupanion (TRUP), a pet insurance company, has similarly seen its stock rise by over 170% YoY. (See "Pet Care Soars.")
