CPG channel share (ACI)
Target reported SSS of 20.7% and Walmart reported US SSS ex. fuel of 6.4%. The companies do not separately report CPG sales, but the mass channel has underperformed other CPG retail channels during the pandemic according to IRI as seen in the chart below. The best performing channel has been e-commerce which has seen continued strength in delivery and store pick-up. The only channel that has performed weaker than mass retailers has been drug stores. The higher priced convenience of the drug store has not been as compelling as the low-priced dollar store channel. Grocery stores, particularly the conventional grocers, have benefited from being a one-stop food destination as consumers consolidate their shopping trips. This share shift likely becomes larger during the current wave of lockdowns and then reverses when vaccines becomes readily available sometime in 2021.
Frozen accelerates with second U.K. lockdown (NOMD)
For the week ended Nov. 7 CPG demand in the U.K. accelerated to +15% from +8% in the previous week. Frozen food accelerated to +28% from +17% over the same time frame. The U.K. government instituted more restrictions starting on Nov. 5th and consumers responded by stocking up grocery items again, especially in the frozen category. The lockdown is supposed to last for four weeks. The UK is Nomad Food's largest country by sales, representing 31% of overall sales.
Wine sales decelerate off-premise (STZ)
For the year wine sales in the off-premise channel have increased 17% in value and 10% in volume. That is a deceleration from +21% in value and +13% in volume in the previous four weeks. The average retail price is $11.33, up 5.5% YOY. For the four weeks ended 10/31 wine sales increased 17% and volumes increased 10% as seen in the chart below.
The growth rate in the last four weeks is the lowest since the pandemic began. The average price per bottle increased earlier in the pandemic, but over the last several months has been steady as seen in the following table. The direct to consumer channel is up 8% in value and 19% in volume this year.
