NewsWire: 11/17/2020
- In 2019, the number of measles cases worldwide soared to its highest level in 23 years, according to a new report. The global death tally was also 50% higher than it was just three years ago, and experts worry the pandemic will push the number of cases up even more. (Associated Press)
- NH: Last year, measles returned around the globe with a vengeance. Nearly 870,000 children worldwide came down with the disease, according to new WHO and CDC data. That’s 556% higher than the number of cases in 2016 and the largest total since 1996. The number of deaths has surged to 207,500, which is almost 50% higher than it was in 2016.
- In the United States, measles cases in 2019 reached 1,282 across 31 states. That's more than in any year since 1992, when the full measles vaccine protocol was still being introduced. As recently as 2012, the number of U.S. cases was just 55.
- This year, since the Covid-19 pandemic hit, reported measles incidence is way down almost everywhere. As of October 15, a mere 15 cases have been identified by the CDC in the United States. That's because face masks and social distancing has been very effective at suppressing infectious pathogens in general, including respiratory viruses. Influenza, for example, practically disappeared during this last "winter" season in Australia, New Zealand, and Latin America. (See "Covid-19 Update: 10/24".)
- But public-health experts are bracing for the certain re-acceleration in measles infections once the Covid-19 threat is over and once people return to their old lifestyle habits. They point out that measles is so infectious that it requires full vaccination (two vaccine shots) by fully 95% of the population in order to be controlled. (This is much higher than, for example, the 60-70% estimated threshold of effective vaccination required to control Covid-19.)
- For many years, the world seemed to be on track toward meeting this target. In the early 2000s, measles vaccination campaigns led to steep declines in cases worldwide. From 2000 to 2016, the number of cases plunged by 84%. Global vaccination rates for the first dose of the vaccine rose from 72% to 84% from 2000 to 2010. Coverage for the second dose climbed as well over this period, to around 71%.
- But those two figures, 84% and 71% (well short of 95%), pretty much represented the high water mark. Ever since, the world has been backsliding.
- Of 184 countries that reported data for 2019, nine accounted for 73% of the cases: Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Madagascar, North Macedonia, Samoa, Tonga, and Ukraine. This list includes several low-income countries that have long struggled with low vaccination rates. But it also includes some middle-income countries, such as Ukraine and Georgia, where the number of “zero-dose” children who have never received any vaccinations is rising. Vaccination rates for children have also been declining in many high-income countries. In America, for example, spotty public health policies and the spread of "antivaxism" among Gen-X parents now leaves some 2.5 million children unvaccinated.
- Public health officials are worried that the Covid-19 pandemic, while it lasts, is further encouraging parents not to take their children to doctors. Routine childhood vaccinations have plummeted in recent months, and 26 countries have had to suspend measles immunization campaigns. Some of these countries have already experienced measles outbreaks. Others could well experience explosive outbreaks once social distancing measures are lifted.
- Should we really worry about the re-emergence of a "traditional childhood disease"? Yes, we should. Experts point out something we know today that was unknown back in the 1960s and 1970s before the measles vaccine was available. It is that the IFR (infection fatality rate) for measles is surprisingly high, about 0.2%. That's maybe one-quarter to one-half of the IFR for Covid-19. But remember: Unlike Covid-19, infection is nearly universal and the victims are nearly all children.
