NewsWire: 11/12/2020
- The Chinese Communist Party released its latest 5-year-plan, which suggests that birth restrictions are going to be further loosened. The phrase “family planning” has been dropped, with officials aiming to develop birth policies that are more “inclusive.” (South China Morning Post)
- NH: Last year, I suggested that we would soon see the PRC introduce more pronatalist policies. (See “China Embraces Pronatalism—Decades Too Late.”) And indeed, the government is slowly but surely inching forward. The Communist Party’s latest five-year plan, released last week, scraps references to “family planning” and instead says officials will seek to “improve birth policy” by making it more “inclusive.”
- The plan doesn’t spell out exactly what this means. But the word “inclusive” is a clear signal that birth restrictions are going to be further relaxed in 2021. How? The two-child limit could be raised to three or four children. And those caught exceeding the limits may not be hit with severe fines anymore. The government may also abolish policies that discourage unmarried women or same-sex couples from becoming parents.
- China’s turn towards pronatalism is long overdue. But so far, the results of its efforts to raise the birthrate have been underwhelming. The one-child policy was lifted in 2016, but a baby boom didn’t follow. Instead, the birthrate kept declining to record lows. (See “China’s Birthrate: Lowest in 70 Years.”) As is the case in so many other East Asian societies, affluence, individualism, and workaholism, plus widespread resistance to the idealized "Confucian family" among young adults, are proving to be big obstacles discouraging women from having children.
- But even if “inclusivity” doesn’t move the needle on births, this announcement is still meaningful. It represents an official departure from decades of family planning policies. As the government relinquishes its role as population-control enforcer, it may also pull back its obsessive monitoring of Chinese "family values." If Chinese officialdom wants more kids, in other words, it may have to relax its views on which parents are having kids and why.
- Thus far, the government has endeavored to boost births, but only the right sort of births. Now they appear to recognize that they need all of the births they can get. Well…at least all of the Han Chinese births they can get.
