Overview
Guardant reported 3Q20 revenue of $74.6M consensus of $65.9M [7 est. $62.0-69.0M]. Based on our Claims Index trend we had expected upside to clinical testing. The sequential uptick in volume at Guardant has also been seen across several of the companies we track. Anecdotally, we have heard several comments that cancer testing has been accelerating in recent weeks despite the reacceleration of COVID19. The updates on their clinical programs in colorectal cancer screening and expanded use were not meaningfully different than prior comments they’ve made. We have not seen the same downturn in volume from a resurgent COVID-19, but rather just the opposite. We’ll continue to watch trends closely, but remain long GH.
Key Quotes
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Since FDA approval in mid-August, our CDx discussions have accelerated and we believe our first approval will pave the way for new companion diagnostic partnerships.
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Biopharma sample volume up 3,071 tests was 42% below the prior year period, but grew 9% from the second quarter of 2020
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Precision oncology revenue from clinical tests included $4.3 million in revenue received from Medicare for samples processed in 2019.
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As Helmy mentioned, there has been a resurgence of COVID cases in some regions across the US. And we are seeing signs indicating that this resurgence will adversely affect clinical volumes.
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While we have been successful in continuing to serve our customers in this environment, we expect that clinical volumes for the fourth quarter will only grow modestly in the low single digits compared to third quarter 2020 given this resurgence.
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I think if you think about what the backdrop looks like in oncology, physician visit – patient visits are still depressed from pre-COVID times. They're still at around 90% of where they were. The top of the funnel is still depressed.
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We are seeing record numbers in terms of a number of unique physicians ordering the tests on a monthly basis
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We're continuing to similar level of progress relative to Q3 modestly we are growing. And definitely still COVID has some impact in terms of the distraction to our biopharma company saw some major programs.
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And clearly, we're in a much more I would say high alert time of the US crossing 100,000 cases per day in terms of new infections. And so there is I think a well-founded – I think level of – I think well-founded kind of level of – I think conservatism on the part of the physicians in terms of really trying to make sure they keep their patients as healthy as possible.
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Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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