OVERVIEW
AMN reported 3Q20 ahead of their guidance and consensus, but more importantly guided 4Q20 well ahead of consensus pointing to a surge in demand, tight supply, and accelerating pricing. They also suggested they expect the demand environment to continue into 1Q21. COVID is driving higher demand, but also restricting supply as clinicians are burning out, or staying home to supervise remote learning. Pricing is up 20%, a level not seen since the roll out of the Affordable Care Act. We think this is being driven by the mix of high cost nurses such ICU and other COVID related specialties, but also reductions in supply from clinicians staying home. Applications are up double digits and AMN says many lapsed travelers are returning to meet the extraordinary demand, just not fast enough to meet demand.
KEY QUOTES
- Turning to fourth quarter guidance, we are projecting consolidated revenue to be in a range of $575 million to $585 million which will be flat to down 2% from prior year. This guidance includes approximately $3 million of labor disruption revenue compared with $17 million in the year ago quarter
- rate was up about 20% in nursing year-over-year, clearly driven in large part by the premium signs in response to the COVID-19 and a very high demand environment we're in. We
- And overall, we're not really anticipating much demand changes any time soon
- And our applications are up pretty significantly for Nursing and Allied. It's just not enough. When you have orders skyrocketing as much as we've had, we just can't keep up with it.
- They're very concerned about the long-term effects of the pandemic in you know both early retirements and losing some really great clinicians earlier than they expected, but also many clinicians making the decision to stay home rather than come back into the workforce or at least maybe go part-time because in – in this case they need to stay home and maybe oversee childcare or online education and/or they may take a different job.
- It's just not at those extraordinarily high levels that we're seeing in Nurse and Allied, but if we look at locums as an example, their demand is growing across many of the specialties.
- It does take some time and there's a bit of a lag from when you can recruit people and place them into those roles. And just quite honestly, just the massive amount of orders we've received would make it difficult.
- We're not expecting any material impact from regular flu.
- Applications are up double-digits in aggregate. If you look at the number of unique new applications in nursing and in most specialties and Allied, it's similar.
- We're getting lapsed travelers back and then our new applications are up which means that our new clinicians, our new placements are up. So all that's positive.
- We certainly have been accelerating our relationships with other telehealth providers over the last eight months both from a temporary staffing standpoint primarily in locums but also even in some permanent searches that we've done with some of the up and coming telehealth providers.
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Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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