NewsWire: 11/4/2020
- While Biden leads Trump, as of Wednesday morning neither candidate has received the 270 electoral votes needed to win. No decision yet in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or North Carolina; the GOP is doing better than expected in House and Senate races. (The New York Times)
- NH: No surprises. As many expected, there was no decision on election night. And it all came down to the "blue wall" states that we've been focusing on all along.
- That alone is an expectations win for Donald Trump, since most forecasters suggested that the only possibility of an early blow out would be for Biden. Trump scored a decisive early victory in Florida, which was widely regarded as a toss-up state. Trump did very well among Cuban and Venezuelan Latinos in Miami-Dade. In fact--as we predicted--he did better among Hispanic voters nationally in 2020 than in 2016.
- But an expectations win is not a real win. The NYT has thus far called 227 electoral votes for Biden. Biden is leading in the vote count in four more states--AZ, NV, WI, and MI. These four add to 43 and would take him over the top to 270. And right now the majority of new votes counted, mainly mail-ins, is going for Biden. So his leads here are only likely to grow.
- That's not all. Biden is currently trailing in PA and GA, but in both these states the vast majority of uncounted votes--mail-ins from the Philadelphia, Pittsburg, and Atlanta regions--are so heavily expected to tilt Democratic that Biden has a decent shot in both. PredictIt has Biden a favorite in PA 65-35 and behind in GA only 60-40. A Biden victory in Georgia would be the biggest stunner of all--along with Biden's win in Arizona. Georgia hasn't voted Democratic in a presidential election since Bill Clinton in 1992. And Arizona hasn't voted Democratic since Bill Clinton in 1996.
- In this "pandemic" election, the vote count arrived in three separate waves. The early in-person votes seemed to give an early lead to Biden in many states. Then came the election-day results, which pushed Trump ahead. And now comes the very long mail-in wave, which is generating the "blue shift" that the Democrats have long been counting on.
- In the popular count, Biden is now ahead of Trump 50.1% to 48.1%. He's already attained the 2 percentage point lead that Clinton ultimately claimed in 2016. But by the time the final mail-ins are counted--and that may take a week or two--you can bet that Biden will come in with a popular vote margin of about 4 points. (PredictIt expects a final margin of 3-to-5 points.) Unlike Clinton, he will definitely be able to claim an absolute majority of votes cast.
- "Slow Joe" turns out to be a more accurate label for Biden than Trump ever imagined.
- While this was a disappointing day for Trump, the Republican Party did as well or better than anyone expected.
- In the Senate, the Republicans appear to have won all the toss-up elections--in NC, in ME, and in IA. As everyone expected, they gained a seat in AL and lost a seat in both CO and AZ. That still gives the GOP a 2-seat majority. Yes, I'm leaving out the two elections in GA, both of which will probably require run-off elections on January 5. The GOP is favored in both.
- Anything is possible, but it does seem highly likely that the Republicans under Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will still be in charge. Senator Chuck Schumer must be rending his garments, because he will probably remain the Minority Leader.
- In the House, it will take a lot of time for all the dust to clear for each of the 435 seats. But here again, things look unexpectedly good for the Republicans. Thus far, the Republicans have flipped 7 seats and the Dems only 2. This edge may not last. But any prediction that the Democrats would significantly boost their edge in the House seem to have been disproven.
- The irony? Ever since Donald Trump arrived on the scene, political pros have been amazed by how consistently his personal brand has outperformed the Republican Party brand. That outperformance seems to have come to an end with the 2020 election.
