CAPITAL BRIEF | History in the Making - 100MM and Counting: 73% of 2016 vote

I was surfing through my Twitter feed just before I was about to publish this note and caught this Tweet by David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report who was Hedgeye's guest last week previewing the election: 

Historic day for the U.S. of A. Despite looming questions about post-election mayhem, Americans must stand tall that knowing the level of engagement in the year's election shows the world that democracy in our republic works. Let's hope it works well. 

Campaign Travel.  President Trump traveled to North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan yesterday - and held his final campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Mich., which was also the location of his final rally in 2016. Former Vice President Joe Biden hosted events in Ohio and Pennsylvania today and held his final event in Pittsburgh.   

On Election Night, President Trump will host a party with roughly 400 guests in the East Room of the White House.  Joe Biden’s campaign announced that he will address the nation this evening from Wilmington, DE. 

Early Voting.  As of midnight last night, over 99,657,079 votes had been cast, equal to 72% of 2016’s total turnout.  Of the over 91 million mail-in ballots requested, 61 million have been returned so far.

Latest Polling in Key Battleground States:

Florida.  Polls Close: 7 p.m. ET in most of the state and 8 p.m. ET in the Panhandle.  29 Electoral Votes.

• Polling:
• RCP Average 10/24-11/1: Biden +1.4.
• Siena College/New York Times 10/27-10/31: Biden 47% Trump 44%
• ABC News/Washington Post 10/24-10/29: Trump 50% Biden 48%
• Early voting: 8.9 million people have already voted (93% of 2016’s turnout). 6 million mail-in ballots were requested.
• Vote counting: Starting October 12 mail-in ballots were able to be processed and counted.  Ballots must be received before polls close on Election Day in order to be counted.  Initial statewide results are expected at 8 p.m. ET, including all ballots cast early in person and by mail.

 

Georgia.  Polls Close: 7 p.m. ET.  16 Electoral Votes.

• Polling:
• RCP Average 10/23-11/1: Trump +0.2.
• Emerson College 10/29-10/31: Trump 49% Biden 48%
• Monmouth University 10/23-10/27: Biden 50% Trump 46%

• Early voting: 3.9 million people have already voted (93% of 2016’s turnout). 1.7 million mail-in ballots were requested.
• Vote counting: Mail-in ballots can be processed and scanned before Election Day, but they cannot be tabulated until the polls close. Mail-in ballots must be received before polls close on Election Day. The Secretary of State predicts that results for less competitive races will be available on Election Night and results from close races will be available one to two days after the election at the latest.

• Senate Race (1): Senator David Perdue (R) vs. Jon Ossoff (D).
• RCP Average 10/27-11/1 Ossoff +0.7.
• Emerson College 10/29-10/31: Ossoff 49% Perdue 48%
• Monmouth University 10/23-10/27: Ossoff 49% Perdue 47%
• Senate Race (2): Jungle primary with numerous candidates, including Senator Kelly Loeffler (R), Rep. Doug Collins (R), and Rev. Raphael Warnock (D).
• RCP Average 10/14-11/1: Warnock 39% Loeffler 23% Collins 21%
• Emerson College 10/29-10/31: Warnock 38% Collins 27% Loeffler 24%
• Monmouth University 10/23-10/27: Warnock 42% Loeffler 22% Collins 20%

• If no candidate receives more than 50% in the Senate races, runoffs will be held on January 5, 2021.

 

North Carolina.  Polls Close: 7:30 p.m. ET.  15 Electoral Votes.

• Polling:
• RCP Average 10/26-10/31: Trump +0.6.
• Marist College 10/25-10/28: Biden 52% Trump 46%
• Emerson College 10/29-10/31: Biden 47% Trump 47%
• Siena College/New York Times 10/23-10/27: Biden 48% Trump 45%

• Early voting: 4.5 million people have already voted (95% of 2016’s turnout). 1.4 million mail-in ballots were requested.
• Vote counting: Mail-in ballots can be processed and scanned upon receipt, but not tabulated before Election Day.  Mail-in ballots postmarked on or before Nov. 3 and received by Nov. 12 can be counted.  Due to a surge in early voting, officials expect as many as 95% of the votes cast will be reported on Election Night. 
• Senate Race: Senator Thom Tillis (R) vs. Cal Cunningham (D).

• RCP Average 10/23-10/31: Cunningham +2.5.
• Marist College 10/25-10/28: Cunningham 53% Tillis 43%
• Emerson College 10/29-10/31: Cunningham 50% Tillis 47%
• Siena College/New York Times 10/23-10/27: Cunningham 46% Tillis 43%

 

Ohio.  Polls Close: 7:30 p.m. ET.  18 Electoral Votes.

• Polling:
• RCP Average 10/17-11/1: Trump +1.4
• Emerson College 10/29-10/31: Biden 50% Trump 49%
• Fox News 10/17-10/20: Trump 46% Biden 44%

• Early voting: 2.9 million people have already voted (51% of 2016’s turnout).  3.1 million mail-in ballots were requested.
• Vote counting: Mail-in ballots are processed and scanned upon receipt but are not tabulated until Election Day.  Ballots postmarked on or before Nov. 2 that arrive by Nov. 13 can be counted.  The first unofficial results will be reported starting at 8 p.m. ET, and results will include early in-person votes, mail-in ballots received before polls close, and day-of in-person votes.  Official results are not expected until November 14 at the earliest.

 

Pennsylvania.  Polls Close: 8 p.m. ET.  20 Electoral Votes.

• Polling:
• RCP Average 10/27-11/2: Biden +2.9.
• Marist College 10/29-11/1: Biden 51% Trump 46% 
• Monmouth University 10/28-11/1: Biden 50% Trump 45%
• Siena College/New York Times 10/26-10/31: Biden 49% Trump 43%
• ABC News/Washington Post 10/24-10/29: Biden 51% Trump 44%
• Early voting: 2.4 million people have already voted (39% of 2016 turnout).  3 million mail-in ballots were requested.
• Vote counting: Mail-in ballots cannot be processed until polls open at 7 a.m. on Election Day. Ballots postmarked on or before November 3 that are received on or before November 6 can be counted. Officials predict that the vast majority of ballots will be counted “in a matter of days.” 

 

Michigan.  Polls Close: 8 p.m. ET.  16 Electoral Votes.

• Polling:
• RCP Average 10/25-11/1: Biden +5.1.
• Emerson College 10/29-10/31: Biden 52% Trump 46%
• Siena College/New York Times 10/23-10/26: Biden 49% Trump 41%
• ABC News/Washington Post 10/20-10/25: Biden 51% Trump 44%
• Early voting: 2.5 million people have already voted (52% of 2016 turnout).  3.2 million mail-in ballots were requested.
• Vote counting: In jurisdictions with populations larger than 25,000, mail-in ballots can be opened and verified for 10 hours on Nov. 2.  Ballots cannot be counted in any jurisdiction until the polls open on Election Day.  Mail-in ballots must be received before polls close on Election Day to be counted.  Counties may release preliminary results as they are available and the Secretary of State expects to have unofficial statewide results on or before Nov. 6.
• Senate Race: Senator Gary Peters (D) vs. John James (R).

• RCP Average 10/25-11/1: Peters: +5.5
• Emerson College 10/29-10/31: Peters 52% James 46%
• Siena College/New York Times 10/23-10/26: Peters 49% James 41%
• ABC News/Washington Post 10/20-10/25: Peters 53% James 46%

 

Texas.  Polls Close: 8 p.m. ET.  38 Electoral Votes.

• Polling:
• RCP Average 10/20-10/31: Trump+1.2
• Emerson College 10/29-10/31: Trump 50% Biden 49%
• Siena College/New York Times 10/20-10/25: Trump 47% Biden 43%

• Early voting: 9.7 million people have already voted (108% of 2016’s turnout).  Fewer than 1 million mail-in ballots were requested.
• Vote counting: Mail-in ballot processing began between October 22 and October 30 depending on the size of the county. Ballots must be postmarked on or before Nov. 3 and received by November 4 in order to be counted. The state expects to release early vote tallies shortly after polls close, which would include mail-in ballots and all in-person voting. Due to a surge in early voting it is expected tallying will be done on Election Night but could go until Thursday.

• Senate Race: Senator John Cornyn (R) vs. MJ Hegar (D).
• RCP Average 10/20-10/31: Cornyn +6.8.
• Emerson College 10/29-10/31: Cornyn 51% Hegar 47%
• Siena College/New York Times 10/20-10/25: Cornyn 48% Hegar 38%

 

Wisconsin.  Polls Close: 9 p.m. ET.  10 Electoral Votes.

• Polling:
• RCP Average 10/21-11/1: Biden +6.6
• Siena College/New York Times 10/26-10/30: Biden 52% Trump 41%
• Emerson College 10/29-10/30: Biden 53% Trump 45%
• ABC News/Washington Post 10-20-10/25: Biden 57% Trump 40%

• Early voting: 1.8 million people have already voted (63% of 2016’s turnout). 1.4 million mail-in ballots were requested.
• Vote counting: Mail-in ballots cannot be processed or counted until the polls open on Election Day. Ballots must be received before the polls close in order to be counted. Once a municipality has started counting ballots, they are not able to stop the process until the last ballot is counted, and they must report their tallies within two hours of finishing the count. Election officials have predicted they will finish counting on election night or the day after.

 

Arizona.  Polls Close: 9 p.m. ET.  11 Electoral Votes.

• Polling:
• RCP Average 10/23-11/1: Biden +0.9
• Marist College 10/29-11/1: Biden 48% Trump 47%
• Siena College/New York Times 10/26-10/30: Biden 49% Trump 43% 

• Early voting: 2.3 million people have already voted (86% of 2016’s turnout).  3.3 million mail-in ballots were requested.
• Vote counting: Mail-in ballots were processed and counted beginning on October 20.  This is one week earlier than the process started in 2018, when results in the Senate race were unclear for almost a week. Mail-in ballots must be received by November 3 in order to be counted. The state is planning on releasing initial results one hour after the polls close, which would include the results of all mail-in and in-person votes cast before Nov. 3.  They will then count ballots cast in-person on Election Day, followed by mail-in ballots returned on Election Day.
• Senate Race: Senator Martha McSally (R) vs. Mark Kelly (D).

• RCP Average 10/21-11/1: Kelly +5.8.
• Marist College 10/29-11/1: Kelly 52% McSally 46%
• Siena College/New York Times 10/26-10/30: Kelly 50% McSally 53%

 

Iowa.  Polls Close: 10 p.m. ET.  6 Electoral Votes.

• Polling:
• RCP Average 10/21-10/30: Trump +1.4
• Emerson College 10/29-10/31: Trump 48% Biden 47%
• Selzer & Co. 10/26-10/29: Trump 48% Biden 41%
• Siena College/New York Times 10/18-10/20: Biden 46% Trump 43%

• Early voting: 924,000 people have already voted (58% of 2016’s turnout).  Less than 1 million mail-in ballots were requested.
• Vote counting: Mail-in ballots were processed starting on October 31 and counting began today.  Ballots postmarked on or before November 2 and received by November 9 are counted.  Initial results are expected at 11 p.m.ET. The Secretary of State has said he is confident all votes cast by mail before the polls close will be counted and included in the initial results.

• Senate Race: Senator Joni Ernst (R) vs. Theresa Greenfield (D).
• RCP Average: 10/23-10/30: Ernst +2.0.
• Emerson College 10/29-10/31: Greenfield 51% Ernst 48%
• Selzer & Co. 10/26-10/29: Ernst 46% Greenfield 42%
• Siena College/New York Times 10/18-10/20: Ernst 45% Greenfield 44%