Market share trends in Florida (TCNNF, CURLF, GTBIF, CCHWF, LHSIF)
The Florida Office of Medical Marijuana Use (OMMU) releases updated cannabis data every Friday.
For the week ending October 30th, the number of qualified patients in Florida’s medical marijuana program grew 0.8% WoW or 46.7% YTD to 438,559 qualified patients with active ID cards. Patient growth has recently slowed, with the past four weekly reports in October showing an average 0.8% WoW growth compared to August’s average patient growth of 1.4% WoW. THC in mgs sold grew 2.0% WoW to 129.5 million mgs, CBD in mgs sold fell -2.6% WoW to 3.7 million mgs, and flower in oz. sold fell -2% WoW to 46,904 oz. sold. Trulieve, Fluent, and Liberty Health Sciences were approved for new dispensary locations, bringing the statewide total to 289 approved dispensing locations.
On a 12WMA, Trulieve’s THC in mgs sold per dispensing location shows a slight downward trend while its flower sold per dispensing location has been trending upwards. Liberty Health Sciences posted its fifth consecutive week of negative growth on a 12WMA in THC sold per dispensing location; last week, the company announced the CEO’s resignation. On a 4WMA, Trulieve maintains a disproportionate market share, with 50.4% share of mgs THC sold, 37.6% of mgs CBD sold, and 54.9% of oz. in flower sold, at just 22.3% share of dispensing locations.
Florida’s medical marijuana marketplace is still in early stages with strong potential – the state’s medical marijuana program has yet to reach 2% of the population, edibles were just introduced to the market in August, and there’s a broad range of qualifying medical conditions, notably ‘severe and chronic pain.’ The rising tide that is patient volume growth lifts all ships.
Election tomorrow – Speaker Call this Friday
No matter which way the general election goes, significant change is coming to the U.S. cannabis industry. While the federal government still classifies cannabis as an illegal controlled substance, states have continued introducing ballot measures on marijuana's legal status under their state law. On November 3, the total number of states legalizing medical or recreational use will likely grow, potentially changing the national conversation around legalization. Pending a blue wave with a Biden win and Democratic majorities in both Congress houses, federal decriminalization could come at an accelerated timeline.
Tomorrow, these five states will vote on official legalization measures on their ballot:
- New Jersey: adult-use, (Population: 8.9M)
- Arizona: adult-use, (Population: 7.3M)
- Mississippi: medical-use, (Population: 3.0M)
- Montana: adult-use, (Population: 1.1M)
- South Dakota: adult-use and medical-use, (Population: 0.9M)
So far, 11 states and D.C. have legalized marijuana for recreational purposes: nine through statewide citizen-initiated ballot measures, and two through state legislative processes. Additionally, 33 states and D.C. have passed laws legalizing or decriminalizing medical marijuana.
Polls have trended positive for all the states on the ballot. The most consequential ballot will be in New Jersey - their passage could trigger a domino effect among neighboring states of NY, PA, CT, and RI. We estimate the region's total market potential to be over $6.5 billion in revenues by 2025. To put this in perspective, the California cannabis market is estimated to be $8-$9 billion by 2025.
We will be hosting a speaker series call on the election's implications and the cannabis industry's future on Friday, Nov. 6, at 10 AM ET. Stay tuned for more details.
Germany rejects adult-use legalization
In Germany, the federal parliament rejected a bill to legalize a “strictly controlled” adult-use market, essentially ending the likelihood of any recreational marijuana reform passing this current legislative period. Any movement on this front in Germany will likely come after the country’s federal elections a year from now. The party of German Chancellor Angela Merkel presently opposes any liberalization on marijuana usage.
