OVERVIEW
Patient utilization and the related demand for Healthcare Labor has rebounded off the mid year lows induced by COVID-19 lockdowns. We have seen this with our AMN Tracker with trends that bottomed mid year and have been on a consistent uptrend since. The trend into 4Q20 has continued. and levels appear to have recovered to 1Q20 levels. There a several important drivers that point to guidance for 4Q20. An important driver of the recent trend has been the recent increase in COVID-19 cases. Our data shows ICU listings have increased in states most affected by the recent COVID outbreaks, and these placements carry significantly higher wage rates. While the unemployment rate for Registered Nurses spiked at the earlier stages of the pandemic, rates fell dramatically to near pre-COVID levels in recent months, and returning nurses to a state of scarcity. In addition, with the reopening of schools, some or all of which has been remote, pressure on caregivers has been intense and has disproportionately impacted women.
4Q20 Upside to Guidance
We expect guidance to exceed consensus for 4Q20. Tracker trends, the positive impact from utilization on Allied, COVID-19 impact on volume and pricing all point to Nurse and Allied staffing that meets or exceeds 1Q20 levels, or $424M and significantly higher than consensus of $378M. Estimates for both 2020 and 2021 have been drifting lower for several months. EV/Sales currently reflects the same optimism, but the underlying positive trends are likely to persist well into 2021.
Tracker | New LISTINGS per day
TRACKER | ACTIVE LISTINGS
Tracker | ICU RN
Tracker | Wages
All data available upon request. Please reach out to with any inquiries.
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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