Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
Another concept real Risk Manager river guides get is measuring stream flow. You don’t have to be one to conceptualize the potential outflow in both AAPL and MSFT if their respective volatilities remain in the 40-60 range!
What’s also particularly interesting to note this morning are the particularly complacent implied volatility readings of the AAPL & MSFT waters:
A) AAPL’s implied volatility just dropped to a -15% DISCOUNT vs. 30-day realized
Remember, DISCOUNTS = complacency (after rallies). PREMIUMS build as risk does (during corrections).
It didn’t take long for all of the Macro Tourists to flip upside down in the water and drawdown the river in to mid-September. It’s a good thing we just had another month-end markup and nobody died.