newswire: 9/30/2020
- The fall broadcast TV season is here, but thanks to the pandemic, it’s going to look like nothing Americans have ever seen before. With production on most scripted shows still limited, viewers will be watching a lot of sports, talking heads, reality shows, coverage of the 2020 race, and even foreign imports. (Bloomberg)
- NH: In late September, broadcast TV networks typically roll out their prized fall programming slate: a handful of shiny new shows alongside returning series. With the proliferation of on-demand options, the idea of sitting down in front of the TV during a specific day and time might seem quaint, but the fall season remains big business. Last year, NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox, and the CW secured around $10 billion in primetime advertising commitments, marking a fourth consecutive year of increased ad spending. Though traditional TV audiences are shrinking, advertisers remain convinced it’s still the best way to reach a big audience all at once.
- But Covid-19 has thrown this process into disarray. Scripted shows make up the lion’s share of fall programming (around 60 hours a week)--and for the first time ever, there’s nothing new to show. TV production shut down in March and has been slow to restart. At the earliest, networks don’t expect any new or returning scripted shows to be ready until late October.
- So what can viewers expect to see instead? Lots of unscripted programming. This includes reality shows, talent competitions, talk shows, and news programs. Compared to scripted shows, they’re cheaper and faster to film and produce. But even here, the range will be limited thanks to pandemic-era restrictions. Don’t hold your breath for any travel shows to niche restaurants in exotic locales.
- Live sports also account for a significant chunk of the primetime schedule. This is good news for the networks, since ratings for sporting events have remained high in recent years. But this year could be an exception since all of the competitions for the U.S. major sports leagues are running at the same time. And with the uncertainty surrounding the virus, anything can happen. Some advertisers have asked for the right to back out of their commitments if NFL games get cancelled.
- The rest is a mishmash of reruns, scripted shows imported from abroad, and shows that originally aired on sister networks. CBS, for instance, is airing the first season of Star Trek: Discovery, whose home is the subscription streaming service CBS All Access.
- So far, the ratings have not been great. Most primetime reality-show broadcasts are attracting 5 million viewers or fewer, which would put them in danger of being cancelled in any other year. As for sports, well, it started off strong. Viewership was high in the summer for baseball and basketball. But more recently sports ratings have fallen--as much as 40% for the NBA, and anywhere from 10% to 25% for the NFL since pro football returned on September 10.
- The argument that traditional TV is the only way to reach viewers in real time still holds true. But with the exception of special events like the Super Bowl, that pool of viewers is smaller than ever. Until scripted shows return, the big four networks are basically doubling as ESPN in the sense that sports programming is what’s keeping the lights on.
