Oat milk takes #2 in market share (STKL)
According to the latest data from the SPINS report oat milk is now the #2 plant-based milk. US retail sales of plant-based milk grew 17% to $2.36B in measured channels (grocery, dollar stores and mass, but not convenience stores, Costco or Whole Foods) in the 52 week period ended September 6, 2020. Sales of almond milk grew 13.1% to $1.5B and retains the #1 share spot. Oat milk grew 304% to $214M driven by refrigerated up 351% and shelf stable up 106%. Soy milk declined 4.5% to $202M. A decade ago soy milk had sales of $1B.
Pea milk grew 12.1% while coconut milk grew 16.1%. Sales of flax, cashew and rice milk were mixed. Flax milk declined 8% in refrigerated sales while shelf-stable grew 54%. Cashew milk declined 18% in refrigerated, but grew 6% in shelf stable. Rice milk declined 8% in refrigerated, but increased 4% in shelf stable. Refrigerated milks are the much larger category at $2.1B vs. $274M for shelf stable. Refrigerated shelf space will be tighter as more products are introduced. Sales of walnut milk and pecan milk declined. Peanut milk has been discontinued.
Costco has launched a Kirkland’s hard seltzer (SAM)
Kirkland, Costco’s private label, has garnered a significant amount of loyalty among Costco shoppers. That doesn’t mean every Costco private label has been successful, Costco beer for example was one miss. The packaging is very similar to White Claw and so is the nutritional details.
The Kirkland hard seltzer was priced at $18 for a case of 24 cans. Hard seltzer has gained share at a much faster rate than craft beer did. After years of share gains craft’s share of the beer category has been relatively flat as seen in the chart below at the same time the number of competitors entering the category has exploded. Between 2015 and 2018 the number of craft beer companies has nearly doubled as the market share gained 1%. There is a strong precedent that a similar dynamic could happen at a much faster rate for hard seltzer. (COST is covered by @HedgeyeRetail)
Plant-based peak? (BYND)
Last week Green Monday raised $70M in its latest funding round. The company is Asia’s largest wholesale plant-based product distributor to retail and foodservice companies (including Taco Bell and Starbucks). The company produces plant-based pork substitutes and is an operator of vegetarian focused retail outlets. The company said it would use the proceeds to expand into 10 new EMEA markets and open 20,000 new retail outlets.
Has the plant-based food trend reached a near term peak or are we inflecting further when Reebok announced the launch of a plant-based shoe? The new Forever Floatride GROW is made entirely from plants (rubber is from trees after all). The first 50 customers also will receive a half bushel of fresh veggies in a dozen varieties. We don’t think it’s a peak, after all the shoes were announced last year. There will likely be more plant-based IPOs/SPACs in the next year – Impossible Foods, Eat Just, Oatly, possibly a spin-off from a conglomerate. I think the peak will be a plant-based electric vehicle IPO, named Beyond Nikola.
