We’re hosting a call Thursday October 1st at 2pm to review the key themes for retail as we head into 4Q. We’re past the re-opening phase, and the government benefits/stimulus actions have for the most part gone away. The sales volatility by category and channel have been like nothing before seen in retail. From here the question is will we start reverting back to ‘normal’ or are we stomping ahead in the new normal.
Some of the key topics we will hit on include:
Wallet share and spending trends – with such big changes in consumer preference, we’ll quantify and contextualize the major changes in spending trends to get a sense of what forward spending might look like. We’ll dive in by category to see which companies are taking share and who is losing it – and what the long/short opportunities are as we settle into a new normal.
Wage pressure – wages for hourly retail workers are seeing the biggest increases of this cycle at a time when one would expect unemployment to mean wages go down via supply and demand. This could mean a new cycle at elevated retail wages accelerating the decline of the losers and further perpetuating the success of the winners. We’ll tackle this on a micro and macro level.
Retail credit cycle – we still think the credit powder keg that has been building for retailers for the better part of a decade is going to blow. It’s been a significant but quiet earnings driver for several larger retailers. We’ll give the latest on data points we are watching and what we think the timing and risk looks like in the coming quarters, and of course will point out the credit-related variances in our models by retailer.
Retail sales and earnings revisions – the vast majority of retail companies are still giving little or no forward guidance, that means the street is left on its own for generating the model trend once again. Earnings vs expectation saw wide ranges in 2Q reporting season, 3Q will likely be similar but with a higher bar on the expectation of continued EPS recovery. We’ll outline the highest likelihood of beats and misses by sub-sector of retail.
Call Details: (This call with be audio only with an accompanying slide deck pdf)
Date/Time: Thursday October 1st at 2pm EDT Add to Calendar: CLICK HERE
Toll Free:
Toll:
UK: 0
Confirmation Number: 13709564
Link for Slide Deck: Will be provided prior to call.
