newswire: 9/11/2020
- Will the selection of Kamala Harris increase turnout among Asian Americans for Biden? In recent years, Asian-American voters have increasingly voted for the Democratic party, and they could end up playing a pivotal role in several swing states. (CBS News)
- NH: Asian Americans used to be one of the most pro-Republican voter demographics. In 1992 and 1996, they were the least likely to vote Democratic of any racial or ethnic group. But over the past 20 years, their loyalties have flipped. In 2012, Asians were more likely to vote Democratic than Hispanics. In 2016, they were about as likely.
- As Asian voters have moved left, Hispanics have stood still--or have actually been shifting a bit towards the GOP. (See: “Trump’s Favorability Rises Among Hispanics.”) By the numbers, Asians’ shift to the Democrats is as dramatic as the double-digit generation gap between younger and older voters, if not more.
- More than 11 million Asian Americans will be eligible to vote this year, making up nearly 5% of the electorate. According to Pew, they are the fastest-growing segment of eligible voters out of all the major racial or ethnic groups. Since 2000, the number of Asian-American eligible voters has surged by 139%--faster than the growth among the Hispanic electorate (121%), and far faster than the black (33%) or white (7%) electorates.
- Yet it’s rare to see politicians make explicit appeals to Asian voters. The selection of Harris, whose mother immigrated from India, is an exception. An AAPI Data poll last month found that 56% of Asian-American registered voters said they hadn't been contacted at all by the Democratic Party, while 59% said the same of the Republicans.
- Why? The reason could be geographic: In recent elections, Asian American voters have been largely concentrated in uncompetitive states like California, New York, and Hawaii. About a third speak limited English. It’s also uniquely challenging to draft an “Asian American” platform, since like “Hispanic,” Asian is an umbrella term that describes dozens of subgroups from different countries. The majority of U.S. Asian voters are accounted for by six origin groups: Chinese, Filipino, Indian, Vietnamese, Korean, and Japanese. The rest represent at least 10 other East and South Asian countries.
- What’s more, Asian Americans represent a wide range of socioeconomic backgrounds. The majority of Asian growth has been due to immigration, and the diversity of backgrounds is partly the result of very different waves of immigration. The Immigration and Nationality Act in 1965 emphasized family reunification. The end to the Vietnam War in 1975 brought in refugees from Indochina. As a result, from 1970 to 1990, the share of Asian immigrants working in low-skill occupations increased. But with the Immigration Act of 1990, the profile of Asians entering the U.S. changed again. Most were highly educated and skilled immigrants entering on H-1B visas.
- These different waves help explain why income inequality in the U.S. is rising fastest among Asian Americans. From 1970 to 2016, the income gap between the richest and poorest Asians nearly doubled. Compared to blacks, whites, and Hispanics, Asians went from being the group with the most equal income distribution to the most unequal. In 2016, Asian households in the 90th wealth percentile were 168 times wealthier than Asian households in the 20th percentile.
- The vast range of differences here suggests that the “Asian” label has limited utility when it comes to targeting voters. Yet over the past two decades, Asian voters have been steadily moving in one direction: towards the Democratic Party.
- In 1992, Asians decisively supported George H.W. Bush over Bill Clinton (55% to 31%) and in surveys were twice as likely to describe themselves as conservative than as liberal. But since 2000, Asian voters have favored Democratic candidates, voting for Gore (55%), Kerry (56%), Obama in 2008 (62%) and 2012 (73%), and Hillary Clinton (65%). Even the majority of Vietnamese voters, who historically are more likely to identify as Republican, went for Obama and Hillary. That’s a shift of 30 percentage points in just 20 years.
- In 1998, 40% of Asians identified as Democrat, 25% as Republican, and 30% as independent. Now 47% identify as Democrat, 20% as Republican, and 32% as independent. Among those who identify as independents, 32% lean Democrat, 22% lean Republican, and 46% towards neither party. These figures are in line with the share and preferences of independents in the general electorate, though Asian voters are more likely to lean Democratic.
- Their tilt towards the Democrats is also evident in issue surveys. The majority of Asian ethnic groups lean toward the Democrats on most questions relating to the economy, government services, and immigration. They support increased spending on public programs, the Affordable Care Act, and stronger gun control.
- So why haven’t Asians favored Democrats all along? I’d argue that it isn’t so much the voters who have changed. It's more the parties they’re voting for. In 2012, Charles Murray wrote an essay for the American Enterprise Institute arguing that Asians should be “natural Republicans” because so many favor free enterprise, the family, meritocracy, and are socially conservative or at least socially conformist. They’re more likely than the general public to stress the importance of education and a successful career. They also have more years of formal education and higher average incomes than any other racial or ethnic group. In short, they’re pro-Establishment with a capital E--which was more or less in line with what the GOP stood for 25 or 30 years ago.
- But times have changed. Now it’s the Democrats who are becoming the party of the establishment (careerism, education, and credentials), and it's the GOP who are becoming the anti-establishment party of outsiders and populists. The disappearance of moderates from the GOP, the downplaying of education and expertise, and the party’s increasingly hard-line rhetoric on immigration--all this has alienated Asian voters.
- So what does this all mean for the election? The AAPI Data poll showed that 54% of Asian Americans plan to vote for Biden and 29% for Trump, with some 16% still undecided. In 2016, the Asian voter turnout rate was just 49%--about on par with Hispanics but significantly below white or black voters. Asian Americans would respond well to a pragmatic, issues-based outreach from either candidate. But whether it’s because of language barriers, the difficulties of targeting such a hugely diverse group, or where they’re located, Asian Americans will probably remain an under-mobilized segment of the electorate in 2020.
