OVERVIEW
Employment and Pricing data available through public sources like BLS are useful indicators of demand. Through the most recent data releases, the trend is slowing after bottoming in April 2020 during peak COVID-19 related lockdowns. The recovery was robust off the lows, but the sequential change appears to be losing momentum as we head into the back half of 2020. Looking across the data, Job Openings have rebounded alongside decent recoveries in Medical Labs and Physician Offices, but Acute Care Hospitals, Imaging Centers, and Nursing Homes all remain weak. "In- person care is recovering" seems to be the trend. We were particularly surprised to see Offices of Chiropractors recover so rapidly as we would have thought in-person visits and economic sensitivity would have been material headwinds. We guess back pain can be quite the motivator.
Pricing metrics have been accelerating, as acuity has increased sharply. There are many reports of preventative care volume falling, which is (presumably) leading to a sicker patient population showing up for care. According to the PPI data, the trend is most visible in the Medicare population, but not among the privately insured, although the impact of COVID can't be separated.
Our monthly data cycle completes next week on Friday, September 18th, which we will follow up with updates to our company level forecast algorithms that now include a number of Hospital, Lab, and Med Tech names.
JOLTS
Health Care Labor Demand
Health Care Employment Series
PPI Indices
All data available upon request. Please reach out to with any inquiries.
