newswire: 9/10/2020
- Perceptions of race relations in the United States have hit a 20-year low, according to a new Gallup poll. In the wake of ongoing protests over the police shootings of unarmed black Americans, less than half of Americans (44%) say that the relationship between blacks and whites is good. (Gallup)
- NH: Just 44% of Americans believe that relations between blacks and whites are currently good. The majority (55%) say that they’re “very” (24%) or “somewhat” (31%) bad.
- After a summer of protests over racial injustice, this may not seem surprising. But notably these are the most negative figures since Gallup began asking this question in 2001. From 2001 to 2013, Americans’ perceptions of race relations were relatively upbeat, with anywhere from 63% to 72% calling them good. In 2015, they took a sharp turn for the worse, plunging to 47% following multiple high-profile incidents that included the deaths of Michael Brown and Eric Garner. In the years since, ratings had begun to tick up again, but have now dropped to their lowest ever. When compared with perceptions of relations between other racial and ethnic groups (e.g. white-Asian relations, white-Hispanic relations, black-Asian relations, and black-Hispanic relations), white-black relations receive by far the worst ratings.
- In May, when the protests over George Floyd’s death began, I pointed out that many white Americans were participating in them. (See “How the Floyd Protests Are Different.”) There seemed to be a sense of increased solidarity between blacks and whites, with public support for the Black Lives Matter movement surging to new highs. By early June, according to Civiqs, the share of whites who said they supported BLM had grown from 35% to 44%.
- But in recent weeks, whatever unity the initial wave of protests inspired appears to have faded. Multiple polls indicate that support for Black Lives Matter has declined. Most of this decline has occurred among white Americans. Among racial minorities, support has either dropped only slightly or continued growing.
- One possible explanation of declining support is concern over rising rates of violent crime (especially homicide and aggravated assault) in major cities since June--a huge rebound after the unusually low crime rates of April and May. Another explanation is some support for President Trump's call for a return to "law and order." Or maybe it's none of the above. Shifts in opinion connected to big news events tend to return to baseline levels once media attention subsides, so maybe no explanation is necessary.
- Looking closely at the declining support for BLM and racial justice protests, we see a dividing line marked more by political identity than racial identity. A recent Ipsos poll found that while black Americans (66%) and Democrats (75%) are the most likely to say that they support the protests that have followed the shooting of Jacob Blake in Wisconsin, Republicans are far less likely to support them (just 7%). This is much lower than the share of Republicans who, when asked in June, said they supported the George Floyd protests (45%).
- In a recent NPR poll, 67% of Americans said they thought the president has made racial tensions worse. Among blacks, it was 88%; among whites, 63%. Republicans, who normally show high levels of support for Trump, were unsure how the answer: 29% said he had increased tensions, and 30% said they were not sure. Most Republicans probably thought the question was misframed: Trump was just telling it like it is, and if most Americans are bothered by that, well, so be it.
- Five years ago, when Americans’ perceptions of race relations tumbled, it happened against a similar backdrop of widespread protests. This time, perceptions have soured amid even sharper partisan dividing lines. While most Americans of all races continue to believe racist behavior by police and other public servants is a national problem needing national action, their opinions on this issue are more divided than ever before by political party.
