newswire: 9/4/2020
- Over the last year, President Trump has been gaining ground among Hispanic Americans. Though Hispanics tend to feel less positive about Trump than the public in general, their support varies widely by religious affiliation, with Hispanic Protestants the most likely to vote for him in November. (Public Religion Research Institute)
- NH: A substantial minority of Hispanics have long voted for the GOP. And in recent years, that margin has grown. In 2016 Trump received 28% of the Hispanic vote (slightly more than Romney in 2012) and 32% of Hispanics age 45 to 64. For the first time, a larger share of Latinos than Asians voted for the GOP presidential candidate. (See "Young Adults Ramping Up Activism Ahead of the 2020 Election.") In the 2018 off-year election, the share of Hispanics voting GOP rose slightly to 29%.
- Now comes a new survey by the Public Religion Research Institute showing that pro-Trump sentiment among Hispanics may have risen swiftly over the past year. Among all Hispanics, PPRI reports a full 36% reporting a favorable view of Trump in August of 2020. This is up from 28% in a poll PPRI took last year.
- Trump's biggest support comes from Hispanic Protestants, 50% of whom report a favorable view of the president. That's a gain of 13 percentage points from 2019. (See chart below.) About 23% of Hispanics in the US identify as Protestant, making it a substantial voting block. And the fastest-growing.
- What explains Hispanic support for Trump? For starters, Hispanics hold significantly more conservative views on social issues (like family, religion, abortion, and gender roles) than the typical American. 51% of Hispanics say abortion should be illegal "all/most of the time," for example, while only 41% of all Americans say the same thing. African-Americans are similarly more religious and socially conservative than Americans as a whole--white Democrats in particular--but the Democrats' postwar track record on supporting for the civil rights movement keeps them voting Blue. (See "Fewer Than Half of Americans Go to Church 'Monthly or More.'")
- One of Trump's strengths is that, along with most Americans, he opposes "making America more politically correct." Hispanics, revealingly, are actually slightly more likely than whites to "oppose" more political correctness (59% versus 56%). African-Americans tip decisively the other way.
- Another reason why Hispanics may be turning more to Trump in 2020 is the President's strong reputation for fixing the economy, one of the very few issues where he comes out ahead of Biden. Hispanics have been hit hard by the recession and may be looking for decisive measures to turn things around. This focus on the economy may shed light on a recent survey by Equis Research reporting that Trump finds substantially more support among Hispanic men than women. Latinos consistently report the economy as their number one concern. Conversely, Latinas say Covid-19 is their biggest worry.
- So how will these Hispanic Trump voters affect the election? It may all come down to Florida. Pew estimates that 20% of all eligible voters in Florida are Hispanic. Trump needs to carry the state if he has any chance of coming out on top in the electoral college, and the margin will be tight. While most Hispanics will vote for Biden, a solid gain in the number who pull the lever for Trump could be the difference between who wins and who loses the Sunshine State.
