NEWSWIRE: 9/1/20
- If Trump and Biden are hoping for big boosts at the polls following the conventions, they may be disappointed. With fewer undecided voters, the post-convention favorability bump is a thing of the past. (The Economist)
- NH: Between 1948 and 1992, support for the incumbent party’s candidate climbed by an average of three percentage points in the two weeks after the convention. It wasn’t unheard of for candidates to see favorability increases of five to 10 points. According to The Economist’s analysis, the biggest surge was seen in 1980, when support for Jimmy Carter surged by 12 percentage points following the DNC.
- But in recent years, post-convention enthusiasm has faded. In the past six elections, the incumbent party’s candidate has seen, on average, a favorability bump of just two points. It rarely exceeds five percentage points anymore.
- This year’s conventions appear to be no different. A Yahoo News/YouGov poll that was taken prior to the RNC showed Biden leading Trump among registered voters by nine points. After the RNC, that margin narrowed, but only slightly; it’s now just over six points. Similarly, Morning Consult found that Trump’s favorability rating ticked up by just 2 percentage points after the convention. Another ABC News/Ipsos poll found that Trump’s favorability rating actually declined (from 32% to 31%). Granted, it’s still early; we could see these numbers continue to tick up and down over the next week. But it’s unlikely they’ll move much.
- What’s behind this shift? In part, it’s yet another byproduct of political polarization. There simply aren’t as many swing voters as there used to be. Surveys from the American National Election Studies show that from 1948 to 1992, the percentage of voters who reported voting for a different party for president than the one they chose in the previous election averaged 18%. But since the 1990s, this figure has plunged. In the 2016 election, it was just 10%. In the latest WSJ/NBC News poll, the share of voters who said that they plan to vote for the nominee of the party they opposed in 2016 was also 10%.
- As the share of swing voters has declined, the percentage of undecided voters has as well. The latest Newsweek cover story estimates that 20% of voters were undecided at this time in 2016. Today that figure is 10%.
- The nonstop political news cycle also means that the public is getting to know the candidates earlier and earlier. The first Democratic primary debate took place in June 2019; we’ve been hearing these messages and counterattacks for more than a year. By the time the conventions rolled around, most of those tuning in had made up their minds long before they turned on the TV. Honestly, if you intend to vote at all, is there really something you need to know about Donald Trump or Joe Biden that you haven't already heard?
- The shrinking share of undecided voters is good news for Biden. So too is the high voter participation rate expected in 2020. (This expectation is based in part on surveys of voter intentions as well as on the record voter turnout in 2018; see "More Evidence of the 2018 Midterm Turnout Boom."). Why do these trend help the Democrats? Because they suggest there are fewer "reserve" voters--those who are still undecided or aren't sure they will vote--who could still rise up and be counted at the last moment. Nate Silver at 538 argues that these trends are helping to stabilize Biden's lead in the polls, though to be sure he also points to other factors (such as the vagaries of mail-in balloting) that will probably help President Trump.
