MRT: GLANCE AT THE 2Q MENU

Here is a look at MRT guidance going into earnings today.

 

Comparable-store sales

  • MRT needs to post a 5.5% increase in comparable restaurant sales in order to maintain two-year trends
  • Per Factset, the Street is expecting a comparable restaurant sales number of +5%, which would imply a 30 bps sequential deceleration in two-year top line trends
  • The five estimates that constitute the Factset estimate are: +3%, +5%, +5%, +6%, and +6%.  Excluding the 3% estimate, it seems that the Street is anticipating a leveling of two-year average trends
  • Next fiscal year EPS estimates have been largely static over the past three months, having been raised 48% in the past six months

Guidance

  • Seeing a gradual increase in business travel – Monday-Thursday business
  • Lodging industry improvement is having a positive impact on MRT’s business
  • The Company is contracted for approximately 20% of 2010 beef needs.  It is the preference of the Company to forward contract meat purchases.
  • While prices have been ticking up, MRT has “pricing flexibility to offset these costs”
  • Anticipating ~3% beef inflation for FY10
  • 2Q revenues are expected to range between 70 and $72 million
  • 2Q comparable restaurant sales increase between 4 and 6%
  • 2Q diluted net income per share from continuing operations is expected to be between $0.02 and $0.04
  • FY10 revenues are expected to range between 293 and $298 million
  • FY10 comparable restaurant sales increase between 3 and 5%
  • FY10 diluted net income per share from continuing operations is expected to be between $0.29 and $0.34
  • Effective tax rate not in excess of 26%

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

 


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