In one of the most intriguing developments of late on the foreign policy front, the New York Times published last month a leaked draft of an alleged 25-year economic and strategic cooperation agreement between Iran and the PRC; but after a flurry of articles assessing the implications, mostly in regional media, attention has waned. So, what gives?
- The deal itself evidently includes cut-rate Iranian oil to China for the 25-year period in exchange for over $400 billion of Chinese investment in key Iranian infrastructure, e.g., ports, telecom, highways and rail. The military component will apparently extend to joint exercises, weapons development, and intelligence sharing, amongst an extensive array of security cooperation opportunities mentioned in the draft.
The strategic worries abound, of course. But to remind: the deal hasn’t been consummated; further, there’s evidence of some reluctance, even push-back, from each of the parties.
- Iran, for example, still harbors resentment at having been forced, in a weakened state, to cede major parts of its territory to a growing Russian empire - in 1828! As an analyst at the Washington Institute reminded readers in July, the Treaty of Turkmenchay between Russia and Persia almost two centuries ago hived off from Persia what is now Armenia and major parts of Azerbaijan to Czar Nicholas I. Legislators in Tehran (apparently with long memories!) fear China may now be repeating what Russia did in the 19th Century.
- And China, as reporting suggests, understands fully what befalls major powers (U.S., Soviet Union/Russia, Great Britain until the late 50’s) who try to hustle the Middle East: endless involvement, with marginal strategic returns.
But if there eventually is a deal, the strategic implications are enormous.
- For Iran, it would be a potential life-line, undercutting any “maximum pressure” campaign by the White House; and going forward, with China in long-term economic overwatch, a cooperation agreement would make it far harder for a President Biden and our European allies to lure Tehran back to the nuclear deal (“JCPOA”) with economic blandishments.
- And for China, it would be a strategic flanking maneuver, bolstering their flagging “Belt and Road” program and unsettling the one rising power to whom the U.S. is increasingly turning as a counter-weight to Beijing: India.
Bottom Line: one of many international developments to watch carefully as we course through the second half of the year; it’s especially unsettling and risk-inducing because a long-term Iran-China cooperation deal would lash together the two countries who represent the greatest threat to stability in the regions they - and the U.S. - consider vital.
- Leaders in Tehran and Beijing fully understand how unsettling this development appears to U.S. strategists; in that light especially, I’d be surprised if the deal doesn’t go through.
