Below is a complimentary Demography Unplugged research note written by Hedgeye Demography analyst Neil Howe. Click here to learn more and subscribe.
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Young adults are more politically engaged now than they were in 2018, with significantly bigger shares taking actions such as registering others to vote. This is according to a new survey, which also finds that there’s no single issue that will determine their vote; the most frequently cited answer is climate change at 13%. (CIRCLE) |
2018 was an off-year election, and 2020 is a presidential year. Political engagement is always higher in presidential years.
Still, the differences between then and now are pretty striking. The share of 18- to 29-year-olds involved in different political activities rose by double-digit percentage points on every measure CIRCLE asks about.
These actions include trying to convince other youth to vote (rising from 33% to 50%), donating money to a campaign (from 8% to 29%), attending a march or demonstration (16% to 27%), registering others to vote (from 11% to 25%), and volunteering for a political campaign (6% to 16%).
When asked which political issue is their top priority, there’s no single issue that stands out. The most common answer, the environment/climate change, was cited by only 13% as their #1 issue. Not far behind were racism and health care affordability (both 12%).
Priorities also differ by race and ethnicity. Latinos and Asians have the same top 3 priorities (the environment, racism, and health care affordability), just in a different order. Blacks are more likely to prioritize the policing of POC communities over the environment. Whites, meanwhile, don’t consider racism one of their top 3 priorities. They’re more concerned about “getting back to normal after coronavirus.”
In 2018, health care was also a top issue for young people--but today, they express less concern about college affordability and jobs even considering the recession. Both those issues have faded in prominence as racism and the environment have risen.
The most interesting findings here are the differences in support of Biden vs. Trump by race. Trump is deeply unpopular among young people overall (24% would vote for him today, vs. 58% who would vote for Biden). A mere 9% of black youth say they’d vote for Trump. Among Asian youth, it’s almost as low (10%).
But the story is different among Latinos and whites. They’re about three times as likely to support Trump: 22% of Latinos would vote for him, and 29% of whites. This may seem a bit odd. Socioeconomically, Latinos are closer to African-Americans and Asians are closer to whites. So what's going on here?
It turns out that young people are following the broader trends taking place generally in the races or ethnicities they belong to. Once upon a time, Asians of all ages once tended to favor Republicans.
In 1996, for example, Asian voters were more likely to vote for Bob Dole than white voters. But Asians began turning sharply against Republicans during the GW Bush and Obama presidencies.
Similarly, a substantial minority (one half to one third) of Latino voters have long voted to the GOP. But in recent decades that margin has not narrowed and indeed may have even grown. In 2012, for the first time, a larger share of Latinos than Asians voted for the Republican presidential candidate. That edge widened in 2016. (See "The 2018 Midterms: A Tale of Two Americas.") The persistent popularity of the Republican brand among Latinos is the subject of an interesting new book by historian Geraldo Cadava, The Hispanic Republican.
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ABOUT NEIL HOWE
Neil Howe is a renowned authority on generations and social change in America. An acclaimed bestselling author and speaker, he is the nation's leading thinker on today's generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America's future.
A historian, economist, and demographer, Howe is also a recognized authority on global aging, long-term fiscal policy, and migration. He is a senior associate to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., where he helps direct the CSIS Global Aging Initiative.
Howe has written over a dozen books on generations, demographic change, and fiscal policy, many of them with William Strauss. Howe and Strauss' first book, Generations is a history of America told as a sequence of generational biographies. Vice President Al Gore called it "the most stimulating book on American history that I have ever read" and sent a copy to every member of Congress. Newt Gingrich called it "an intellectual tour de force." Of their book, The Fourth Turning, The Boston Globe wrote, "If Howe and Strauss are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets."
Howe and Strauss originally coined the term "Millennial Generation" in 1991, and wrote the pioneering book on this generation, Millennials Rising. His work has been featured frequently in the media, including USA Today, CNN, the New York Times, and CBS' 60 Minutes.
Previously, with Peter G. Peterson, Howe co-authored On Borrowed Time, a pioneering call for budgetary reform and The Graying of the Great Powers with Richard Jackson.
Howe received his B.A. at U.C. Berkeley and later earned graduate degrees in economics and history from Yale University.
