The guest commentary below was written by Jesse Felder of The Felder Report
As I write this, the Nasdaq 100 Index is up 30% over the past year while continued jobless claims have soared to record highs as the result of a pandemic.
It’s like nothing I’ve ever seen (or anyone else has ever seen, for that matter).
Typically, when recession hits and unemployment rises dramatically it’s not good for the stock market as both revenues and earnings take a hit. In the past, the trends in continued jobless claims and stocks had a negative correlation, meaning that when the former rose the latter fell.
Over the past few months, however, we have seen both rise strongly in tandem. And there may be no better representation of the massive gulf between the stock market and the economy right now.
This is a Hedgeye Guest Contributor piece written by Jesse Felder and reposted from The Felder Report blog. Felder has been managing money for over 20 years. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Today he lives in Bend, Oregon and publishes The Felder Report. This piece does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Hedgeye.