Newswire: 6/18/20
- Support for the Black Lives Matter movement has increased nearly as much in the past two weeks as it did in the past two years. The killing of George Floyd has driven a sharp shift in public opinion: A majority (53%) of Americans now support the movement, while 26% oppose it. (The New York Times)
- NH: Since its founding in 2013, opinions about Black Lives Matter have been deeply polarized, with most blacks supporting the movement and most whites opposing it. But in the past couple of years, public opinion about the movement has been steadily moving left--and the George Floyd protests have catapulted support to landmark levels.
- The week before Floyd’s death, U.S. registered voters supported BLM by a 14-point margin. In the week after, this jumped to 27 points. As of June 13, more people support BLM than oppose it in nearly every demographic group surveyed, with support particularly strong among blacks (86%), Democrats (87%), young adults under 30 (66%), and women (60%). The one exception is Republicans. But even Republicans have seen a pronounced shift in opinion over time. Today, 56% oppose BLM, 29% neither support nor oppose it, and 13% support it. At the same time two years ago, 78% opposed it, 17% were neutral, and 5% supported it.
- Will this shift in opinion last? On some issues, support tends to spike after a high-profile news event only to return to baseline levels after the media has moved on. Support for gun control, for instance, spiked after the Parkland shootings in February 2018, but fell back to pre-Parkland levels by July. Opinions on moral issues that are not tied to specific news events, such as beliefs about abortion or gay marriage, tend to be steadier and move only in one direction or remain within a certain range. Compared to other “surge-prone” issues, the post-protests spike for BLM is uniquely large and continues a long-term shift that was already underway prior to Floyd’s death. This would suggest that while current support levels may be artificially high, the overall net support for BLM is here to stay.
- But this brings up another consideration. What does supporting Black Lives Matter actually mean? Unlike, say, gun control, it isn’t tied to a specific policy goal. While the intent of the movement is clear, there’s no clear picture of what fighting for racial justice looks like. We’re seeing this play out now. For some activists, it means abolishing traditional law enforcement altogether. To others, it means "defunding the police" in favor of spending on social services. Yet still others--for example, the Congressional Black Caucus, whose constituents often live in high-crime districts--are not in favor of defunding the police. They support instead such procedural reforms as the Justice in Policing Act just introduced to the House of Representatives.
- Supporting BLM means different things to different people, and it won’t be until we start seeing polls asking about policy that we can begin to understand what, if anything, Americans want to happen next.
