newswire: 6/9/2020
- The George Floyd protests have drawn a lot of comparisons to 1968 and other periods of racial unrest, but there are some key differences. The protests are much more racially diverse, and their geography has shifted: Far more activity is taking place in central business districts and upscale areas like Chicago’s Michigan Avenue and Beverly Hills. (The New York Times)
- NH: Racial injustice in America is often portrayed as a festering wound that just won't heal. Urban unrest triggered by acts of injustice always end the same way--with no real change. According to this interpretation, the George Floyd demonstrations won't change the system any more than the Rodney King riots in 1992 or the long hot summers of the late 1960s.
- This time, however, we are seeing some real changes.
- For starters, a significantly larger share of the American public now agrees that something must be done about racial injustice against blacks. This opinion shift first started appearing four or five years ago, just before the 2016 election. Leading the shift are college-educated Americans, Americans under age 30, and white and Hispanic Democrats. The views of Republicans and older Americans are also changing, albeit not as dramatically.
- Why are opinions changing now? IMO much of the shift is a delayed response to the dramatic decline in violence and youth crime in America over the last 25 years. As daily life gets much safer, people simply don't see the need for brutal (and often racially biased) police tactics. This follows a long-term rhythm in American history. After every generation-long period of declining violence, Americans have always become more sensitive to the rights of civilians. The reverse, of course, is also true. (See "The Politics of Falling Crime.")
- Quite simply, justice reform has gone mainstream. Many more Americans support better police practices and less (or no) prison time for nonviolent offenders. The goal of the nonpartisan group #cut50--to reduce America's prison population by half--enjoys wide support. (And in fact that goal has already been achieved for Millennials under age 25.) In a landmark move, President Trump himself led his party to support the First Step Act, which reduces prison sentencing for federal prisoners.
- Another change is the substantial participation of white Americans in the George Floyd demonstrations--spreading, even, to mostly white demonstrations in small town America. This reflects the broader white agreement with the demonstrators' goals, the largely peaceful behavior of the protesters, and the fact that so many more affluent whites live in urban centers. Because Millennials of all races are committing so much less violence in cities today, many more Millennials of all races have chosen to live in cities--even affluent Millennials who could afford to live elsewhere.
- The difference in violence, again, is key. Lest anyone forget, the 1992 "unrest" in South Central LA ended in open gun battles between store owners and rioters, the violent deaths of 63 people, terror and injuries to thousands, and the damaging or burning down of nearly 4,000 buildings. It wasn't quelled until both national guard and U.S. army troops moved in. No one who didn't already live there (African Americans and some Korean Americans) would ever have ventured there while the violence raged. And very few whites lived nearby. In the early 1990s, in cities nationwide, the rate of serious violent crime was four times higher than it is today.
- The urban world of 2020 has changed dramatically.
- Now we come to the topic of the NYT article, which points to yet another difference worth noticing in the George Floyd demonstrations. And this is their location. Historically, African-American demonstrations and protests sparked by acts of injustice have occurred mainly within African-American communities. This time, there has little or no unrest in poor, mostly-black urban neighborhoods--like Watts, Oakland, South Chicago, the Bronx. Instead, the demonstrators have deliberately targeted many of the whitest and most affluent census tracts in each city: Rodeo Drive in LA, Miracle Mile in Chicago, the "new" downtown in Detroit, SoHo in New York, Buckhead in Atlanta.
- Why? Well, it's fair to point out that these ritzy neighborhoods are not as white as they used to be--thanks to a rising generation of affluent nonwhite professionals. It's also true that the protest leaders decided that, to get their point across, it makes sense to go where they'll be noticed--which is where the wealth and power are.
- Yet the NYT author adds, correctly, another rationale. And that is the growing social tension generated by skyrocketing economic inequality in America's major urban centers--and how this inequality has been worsened by the pandemic lockdown. (See "Biggest Metros Spawning Greatest Inequality" and "COVID-19 Hits the Nation's Largest Metros the Hardest." If windows are to be smashed and stores looted, why not make sure they include those (Nordstrom, Apple, R.E.I.) that serve the affluent and that pay their employees--including many of the demonstrators--little?
- The protest movement is focused on #blacklivesmatter, but it is also drawing energy from #onepercent. A growing number of young whites and latinos whose lives are on hold may be finding it a lot easier to identify with a historically disadvantaged minority across the board. In this sense, no matter what happens to reform police practices, #icantbreathe is probably a harbinger of a lot more to come.
