Speculation runs rife on how COVID-19 is changing global diplomacy. Last month I offered thoughts on at least four key relationships: U.S.-China ("hard to overstate the downturn"); U.S.-EU ("relationship has never been worse"); Japan-South Korea ("generations-long squabbles, aggravated by COVID-19); and North America ("a positive note, with inter-capital discussions of the type missing between Washington and Brussels").
- The North American "era of good feeling," by the way, was further strengthened a week ago when Washington helped bail Mexico out of a large share of its OPEC+ oil production cuts.
But one diplomatic scene not outlined earlier was the Middle East; it warrants a brief comment. Three developments, all at least indirectly related to COVID-19, appear to be shaping the future diplomatic contours of this troubled region:
- First is the renewed life being given to extremist ideology, practiced and operationalized by ISIS, al Qaeda, and a myriad of other radical off-shoots. Candidly, it's not hard to envision the explosive impact of a global pandemic on jihadist recruiters excited to swell the ranks of the "armies of the faithful." It's already clear that the ranks are rebuilding - from youth thrown onto unemployment rolls, and from the millions already displaced in refugee camps.
- Second is the eagerness of the U.S. and our NATO allies to "bring the troops home" from this region. The understandable focus now on domestic health care systems, for example, has pushed both resources and international policy attention to the back burner; U.S. Presidents and European leaders won't be leaning forward any time soon to refocus. If U.S. and NATO troops are withdrawn, the winners will be the extremists.
- Finally, in what may turn out to be a positive for long-run U.S. interests in the ME, Russia may have overplayed its hand in its oil pricing dispute with the Kingdom. Moscow had the U.S. shale industry in its sights, but as Steven Cook at the Council on Foreign Relations opined late last week, "Moscow spent years building influence in the region and lost it all playing hardball with Riyadh."
Few have grown rich accurately forecasting the future of the Middle East. But as many analysts are now highlighting, COVID-19 is merely accelerating global trends apparent before the outbreak. The (continuing) attractiveness of the jihadist narrative, and the eagerness of western powers to disengage from the ME, are but two of the trends being given a "pandemic push."
- And Russia? Its president decided to challenge an aggressive Saudi Crown Prince, who in all likelihood will run the Kingdom for the next 50 years. Putin's two-year bromance with Mohammed bin Salman is now over; the collapse in oil prices last week changes this not at all.
