As projections of the global pandemic worsen, it's hardly surprising that analysts of all stripes are working overtime to look for diplomatic opportunities that might emerge from the crisis. As I wrote two weeks ago, respected international policy veterans like Vali Nasr of Brookings - joined recently by his colleague Michael O'Hanlon, former Deputy Secretary of State Bill Burns, and many others - have offered up not just Iran, but also Afghanistan, North Korea, and even Venezuela as opportunistic examples.
- To be clear, these are all enormous diplomatic long shots. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is investing heavily and personally in the Afghanistan drama, for example; even with his involvement, and some signs of movement of late, the parties remain sharply divided, with prospects bleak. Candidly, the other "opportunities" - notwithstanding our effort two weeks ago to broker a Caracas deal to oust President Nicolas Maduro - are similarly depressing.
- But the North Korea case is intriguing. To be clear, a Trump-Kim Jong Un breakthrough is not on the immediate horizon! And since the COVID-19 pandemic began, Kim has test-launched at least four short-range missiles.
- However, events since December - and a Pyongyang "dog that hasn't barked" since then - suggest a fleeting opportunity.
- Recall, Kim was pressing the tension envelope at the end of 2019, promising a New Year's "surprise." Nothing happened. Korean experts then speculated that the surprise (a nuclear test or an ICBM launch) would occur on the birthday of Kim's father in February; again, nothing.
- Add to this President Trump's letter to Kim Jong Un last month, offering assistance on the coronavirus; surprisingly, this elicited an overly generous official North Korean response. These developments in combination hint that a narrow diplomatic window just might be opening.
If true, how might the two sides use this potential moment? To start, it would help for the White House to shelve thoughts of the "big deal" and move incrementally. Last year's disastrous summit in Vietnam was held despite strong misgivings by Mike Pompeo and Special Emissary Steve Biegun on the Trump "everything now" approach.
- The alternative diplomatic route? Step-by-step, i.e., Pyongyang verifiably gives up its ability to make bombs, and we work for a partial lifting of international sanctions, along with an aid offer. At this moment, the move just might be enticing to Kim, particularly if North Korean's medical system is collapsing on top of an economic implosion.
- A major problem, of course? China. They will want to play in any U.S.-Pyongyang opening; and given the recent frostiness in our relations with Beijing, they're unlikely to step forward here and help.
Bottom line: amidst the sadness and drama surrounding COVID-19, some diplomatic openings might well emerge over the coming months that are a cause for optimism. Despite the long odds, it's worth watching the hermit kingdom over the coming weeks, to see if the dog stays mute and the White House and Kim Jong Un follow up with other, more substantive letters of love.
