A 10BN NUMBER BOOSTS MACAU STOCKS

An article claiming Macau revenues reached 10 billion mid-month doesn’t jive with our sources.

As we wrote about last week, our Macau sources indicated that table gaming revenues reached HK$7.5 billion through June 16th.  This weekend, an article in the Macau Daily indicated that gaming revenues were MOP10 billion (a little lower than HK$10bn) through the same date.  The Macau gaming stocks traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange ripped overnight, all up in the 5-6% range.  How much of that was due to the Yuan devaluation – the Hang Seng was up 3% on the news – or the Macau Daily report, we don’t know.

We reconfirmed with our source this morning that HK$7.5 billion remains the correct number so we stand by our report.  Our meetings last week in Macau certainly implied a level of business more consistent with the 7.5 than 10.  Obviously, the difference would be huge.  Our HK$14.0-14.5 billion full month total revenue projection yields a Y-o-Y growth rate of 74-80% versus the Macau Daily implication of a HK$19 billion month or 135% growth.