CLICK HERE FOR RECESSIONS INDICATORS UPDATE
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What’s New Since FEB 26, 2020:
- SUMMARY (EOD 3/31/20)
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Most indicator prints as of Mar 31 do not yet reflect the dramatic economic deceleration resulting from America’s COVID-19 shutdown, which commenced in the third week of March. But most indicators pointing to any March activity show a sharp contraction. Initial unemployment claims for March 16-21 (3.28M) were nearly 5x worse than in any earlier month in history. This is one of our favorite short-term indicators, and it is now reading as triggered. Four out of five of the regional Fed manufacturing diffusion indexes came in with very negative deltas. Almost certainly, we are in a recession. As more data reflecting late-March activity appear in mid-April to early May, we will be better able to assess the full magnitude of the hit to production, income, sales, and employment.
- IMPROVED:
- CES Total Employment + ^ YoY (Ch. 57) increased from 1.42% in JAN to 1.60% in FEB.
- Average Weekly Hours: Manu*+ YoY (Ch. 64) increased from -0.6 in JAN to 0.0 in FEB.
- MIXED:
- Manufactures’ New Orders: Durable Goods* YoY (Ch. 26) increased from -3.75% in JAN to -0.06% in FEB.
- CB US Leading Economic Indicators Index*+ (Ch. 94) slightly dropped from 0.9 in JAN to 0.8 in FEB.
- WORSENED:
- Initial Unemployment Claims Weekly * + (Ch. 56) increased from 233.00K to 3.28M, expectations fail.
- University of Michigan Consumer Expectations YoY (Ch. 85) dropped from 7.1 in FEB to -9.1 in MAR, expectations fail.
- Kansas City Fed Regional Manu General Condition (Ch. 51) dropped from 5.0 in FEB to -17.0 in MAR, expectations fail.
- Dallas Fed Regional Manu General Condition (Ch. 50) dropped from 1.2 in FEB to -70.0 in MAR, expectations fail.
- New York Fed Regional Manu General Condition (Ch. 49) dropped from 12.9 in FEB to -21.5 in MAR, expectations fail.
- Phil. Fed Regional Manu General Condition (Ch. 47) dropped from 36.7 in FEB to -122.7 in MAR, expectations fail.
- Manufacturers' New Orders: Consumer Goods^ YoY (Ch. 23) dropped from 2.11% in DEC to 1.29% in JAN.
- Manufacturers’ New Orders: Nondefense Excluding Aircraft* YoY (Ch. 24) dropped from 0.57% in JAN to -0.57% in FEB.
- Housing Permits, New Authorized* YoY (Ch. 29) dropped form 234K in JAN to 165K in FEB.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: New Orders* YoY (Ch. 41) dropped from 52.0 in JAN to 49.8 in FEB.
- FAVORITE INDICATORS: STATUS CHANGE (Ch. 117):
- Initial Unemployment Claims 4-Week Moving Average* + (Ch. 56) changed from ALL CLEAR on 2/26 to TRIGGERED on 3/31.
FOOTNOTES
* A Conference Board Leading Indicator
+ One of Our Favorite Indicators
^ A “Big Four” Indicator
