Editor's Note: This is a complimentary research note published by Director of Research Daryl Jones on March 16th. With the impact of COVID-19 picking up, we're working on disseminating this research more broadly. More to be revealed.

“Character, in the long run, is the decisive factor in the life of an individual and of nations alike.”
-Theodore Roosevelt

The rate of growth of COVID-19 infections continue to accelerate. As of the WHO report yesterday at 430pm, we were at 153,517 infections, which grew 7.7% day over day. Currently, according to Johns Hopkins, we are at 174,615 infections.  Make no mistake: the global growth rate is accelerating

The U.S. case count stands at 3,774 and continues to grow on a path comparable to the worst outbreaks globally. Our base case is for a nationwide shutdown and severe stress on the hospital system

As of yet, we are seeing no trend in slowing infections in Italy or Spain despite the nationwide shutdowns

COVID-19 Update - Global Infections Accelerating - 02.26.2020 black swan cartoon

The U.S. Situation

  • Yesterday when I wrote this update at 2pm, per Johns Hopkins, we were at 2,952 cases of COVID-19.  Less than 24 hours later, per Johns Hopkins, we are at 3,813.  That’s a roughly 30% growth rate in less than 24 hours
  • U.S. government reporting on COVID-19 continues to be abysmal. They are the only major country who doesn’t provide updates through the weekend.
  • The U.S. curve of infection most parallels Spain, which went from 3000 -> 9000 in three days.  The U.S. remains on that path and will likely be at north of 10,000+ cases by the week’s end
  • We finally have real testing capacity in the U.S with total testing capacity at 36,910 per day, which is double from five days ago
  • As of 4pm yesterday, total tests taken in the U.S. was 27,963, 3,173 positives, 22,548 negatives, and 2,242 pending. Positive test rate running at about 11%

The Global Situation

  • As noted above, global cases continue to accelerate.  There are now more cases outside China than there were / are in China

COVID-19 Update - Global Infections Accelerating - covidc1

  • We are so far seeing no meaningful slowdown in infection rate growth in Europe
    • As of WHO report yesterday:
      • Italy up 19.8% day-over-day to 21,157
      • France up 22.8% to 4,469
      • Spain up 36.0% to 5,753
    • The preliminary data so far from today shows that we are, as of yet, seeing no slowing in growth rate in Europe
  • We will continue to closely watch Europe, in particular Spain and Italy, to watch for signs that the Shutdowns are working. And we are confident they eventually will
  • Based on analysis by www.worldometers.info, below are the death rates globally by age cohort:

COVID-19 Update - Global Infections Accelerating - 3 16 2020 12 11 36 PM

China, Japan, Korea

  • No meaningful change in any of these countries they continue to, based on the data they report, control the outbreak and flatten the curve of infection
    • Korean infections are growing at around 1% day-over-day.  One interesting note is that Korea is seeing a much higher rate of infections in the 20 – 29 age group than other nations, likely due to them not feeling they are at risk, etc
    • Japanese infections remain under 1,000
    • China is only adding around 20 new infections a day, with the vast majority of Chinese patients having healed.
  • The table, albeit hard to read, shows the infection curve of various countries (Source is here)

COVID-19 Update - Global Infections Accelerating - covidc2