CLICK HERE FOR RECESSIONS INDICATORS UPDATE
-
What’s New Since JAN 24, 2020:
- SUMMARY:
- Indicator changes were mixed over the past month. Many of the indicators don’t yet show the impact of the coronavirus. Positive news: jump in housing permits, in manf new orders for consumer goods and nondefense capital, and in the CB US leading indicators index. Mixed news: both CB consumer confidence and the Chicago Fed Midwest Economy Index rose but were still negative. Negative news: Markit PMIs dropped across the board including services, which is thought to be the strong part of the U.S. economy. Also, CB consumer expectations dropped after its spike in late January.
- IMPROVED:
- Manufacturers' New Orders: Consumer Goods^ YoY (Ch. 23) rose from 0.54% in NOV to 2.25% in DEC, expectations beat.
-
Manufacturers’ New Orders: Nondefense Excluding Aircraft* YoY (Ch. 24) rose from 0.20% in NOV to 0.96% in DEC.
-
Housing Permits, New Authorized* YoY (Ch. 29) rose from 81K units in DEC to 234K units in JAN, expectations beat.
-
ISM Manufacturing PMI: New Orders* (Ch. 41) rose from 47.6 in DEC to 52.0 in JAN, expectations beat.
-
CB US Leading Economic Indicators Index*+ (Ch. 94) rose from 0.1 in DEC to 1.0 in JAN, expectations beat.
- MIXED:
- Manufactures’ New Orders: Durable Goods* YoY (Ch. 26) dropped 3.62% in DEC after a 4.85% drop in NOV.
-
Chicago Fed Midwest Economy Index+ (Ch. 52) increased from -0.476 in NOV to -0.443 in DEC.
-
CB Consumer Confidence Index: Overall+ Exp-Pres (Ch. 84) increased from -72.5 in JAN to -57.3 in FEB, expectations fail.
- WORSENED:
- Advance Retail Sales Ex Food Services^ YoY (Ch. 21) dropped from 5.44% in DEC to 3.96% in JAN.
- CES Total Employment+ ^ (Ch. 57) slightly dropped from 1.40% in DEC to 1.37% in JAN.
-
CB Consumer Confidence Index: Expectations*+ (Ch. 83) dropped from 12.0 in JAN to 4.0 in FEB, expectations fail.
-
Markit PMI: Services (Ch. 46) dropped from 53.3 in JAN to 49.6 in FEB, expectations fail.
- FAVORITE INDICATORS: STATUS CHANGE (Ch. 117):
- CB Consumer Confidence Index: Expectations*+ (Ch. 83): Short-Term, change from “Close to Triggering” to “All Clear.”
FOOTNOTES
* A Conference Board Leading Indicator
+ One of Our Favorite Indicators
^ A “Big Four” Indicator
