A year ago Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido seemed poised, with international diplomatic support, to finally topple dictator Nicolas Maduro and end more than two decades of “Chavista” misrule in that once-wealthy Andean nation. That optimism has sadly vanished.
- With Guaido’s almost desperate but unsuccessful efforts to garner support last week at Davos, one is forced to conclude that Guaido’s time has probably passed.
The scale of the Venezuelan tragedy continues to shock: with refugees now totaling more than 5 million, Venezuela exceeds Syria as a humanitarian nightmare. Caracas has long since stopped reporting economic statistics, but estimates from regional financial institutions suggest the economy has shrunk by more than 60% since 2013
Yet Maduro survives; and he is likely to stay in power for years, largely because of the support he is receiving from U.S. adversaries bent on disrupting U.S. policy in the hemisphere.
- Russia, for example, continues to provide military and economic help; as one observer recently wrote, it’s a “low-cost way to sow discord in the U.S.’s hemisphere.
- China’s support has been more robust, with more than $60 billion in loans-for-oil deals.
- Even Turkey, long a rock of support on NATO’s eastern flank, seems bent on adding to American hemispheric challenges by helping Maduro market Venezuela’s gold supply.
Further, now that John Bolton has departed as National Security Advisor, and with Trump’s attention focused elsewhere, international support for Guaido that had been marshaled under the banner of the “Lima Group” (a loose collection of 14 hemispheric nations) is slowly dissipating.
Is there a way ahead for the embattled Venezuelan opposition? Don’t look for either Russia or Turkey to help here; but there might be an avenue with Beijing.
- Less than a year ago, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said that the PRC is “open to working with a different government” – probably to keep all options open, to ensure repayment on its outstanding loans.
- But a thoughtful recent analysis by the Atlantic Council highlighted that there have been no new loans since 2013 (when Maduro assumed power) and that Beijing is uneasy about “carrying the burden for Venezuela’s economic collapse.”
- Does this suggest an opportunity for a U.S.-China brokered transition for Caracas? It could. But such an initiative requires a high-level strategic dialogue, with empowered agencies from both sides. At this point there’s no indication that either the White House or Xi Jingping is interested in making this a major issue in the bilateral relationship; trade (and now the coronavirus) have trumped all agendas.
In the end, therefore, we’re likely to see Venezuelan suffering continue, with prolonged Maduro rule. If there is any good news, it’s that oil markets are unlikely to be stressed because of a Venezuelan-induced crisis or a U.S.-supported military overthrow. However, for a once-proud country, that’s little solace.
