OVERVIEW
Growth rates are slowing both at the Macro level and Health Care Sector level. We've had more longs than shorts for much of the last year, but are looking to add to the short roster over the coming weeks. To find the best names to focus on we've been developing a screen that measures the growth and acceleration of estimate trends which so far has been the best tool for identifying the best names. Instead of counter-consensus heroics, we're looking for inflection points where we can more or less go with the flow, and as a result have moved HCA to the short bench. Needless to say, this also indicates we have THC and AMN on a shorter leash.
NVTA | pre- announced 2019 revenue (and implied 4Q19) and provided initial guidance for 2020 for volume and revenue. The company guided to on 482,000 samples,vs guidance of 500,000, and guided revenue to $216 million in revenue versus guidance of 220 million in 2019. 2020 revenue guidance of $330M is slightly better than consensus of $324M and is accompanied with volume guidance of 725,000.
DXCM | pre- announced positive for 4Q19 and inline for 2020 relative to consensus. Our claims data has been slowing in line with the growth posted for 4Q19. We will publish the updated series.
US Medical Economy Decelerating | Trends in in the US Medical Economy remain positive, but are showing signs of deceleration in December and heading into 2020.
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Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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