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Weekly jobless claims were reported higher yet again this week at 455,000 claims, up from last week's 448,000. Since mid July, the "Trend" here in US Employment has deteriorated materially. Within our RIPTE framework, "E" (Employment) is taking over as the most relevant when considering US growth, or lack thereof.

This is not only the highest nominal reading we've had in Q3, but the highest we've had since March of 2002. To dismiss it as another "negative" data point that the market has already discounted would be analytically reckless. The 4 week avg is now 420,000, and I think 500,000 is in the cards within the next 3-6 months.

KM